McConnell’s not wrong, but Democratic momentum also isn’t what it seems

The Democrats are riding a wave of successes the past few weeks. Gas prices edging downward, passage of the improbably named Inflation Reduction Act, successful meddling in Republican primaries and improving poll numbers have combined to make Biden and his compatriots believe they can win control of the Senate, and optimism is rising about the House.

But when you dig through the numbers, Democrats are getting ahead of themselves.

It is true that Democratic candidates are doing better than expected in several states and that Republican candidates, according to even GOP Senate leader Mitch McConnell (Ky.), are not exactly top quality. In fact, Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.), Herschel Walker in Georgia and Dr. Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania are Biden-level gaffe machines. But McConnell is likely engaging in more than a little gamesmanship of lowering expectations. He also wants to make sure any blame for not taking the majority gets pinned squarely on Donald Trump.

The main ballgame is control of the Senate. Democrats are desperate not just to prevent a GOP majority but to grab two seats and escape the clutches of Sens. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) and Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.). In addition, it would be extremely improbable to retain control of the House. Outside of the 2002 election in the aftermath of 9/11, since 1994 the president’s party has lost an average of 53 seats in each respective midterm.

Republicans have a challenge in that they are defending 21 seats against the Democrats’ 14, although most of the GOP seats are in safe territory. The real battlegrounds are five Republican seats (Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin) and four Democratic seats (Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and New Hampshire).

After a depressing Spring, the Democrats and their backers in the media became bullish on their prospects through July and August. However, that optimism was built on a clutch of partisan polls with suspect results and low sample sizes, and a marked lack of independent polls over the summer.

For example, the anti-GOP Center Street PAC in Ohio put Republican J.D. Vance behind Democrat Tim Ryan by 11 points. Even Ryan’s own campaign could not bring itself to be that brazen, releasing a poll that had Ryan leading by just 3 points. But hopes for a Democratic romp are looking rather thin with Emerson College just releasing a poll putting Vance ahead by 3 points and the Trafalgar Group showing Vance with a 5-point lead. Trafalgar is a GOP pollster, but its polling in 2020 and 2021 has a strong track record — and is generally in line with nonpartisan results.

While the Democratic partisan polls have put their candidates ahead in every competitive race, independent and Republican polls have produced numbers that show a mixed bag. Republican candidates are running strongest in Ohio, North Carolina and Florida. In North Carolina, Republican Ted Budd has led Democrat Cheri Beasley, with only one recent GOP poll putting them even. In Florida, Republican Sen. Marco Rubio has been well ahead of Democratic challenger Val Demings, with the sole exception of a recent University of North Florida poll. In Nevada, Suffolk has Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto ahead 45 percent to 38 percent over Republican challenger Adam Laxalt, while Trafalgar has Laxalt up by 2 points.

McConnell’s concerns and Democratic optimism are vindicated in Arizona, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. In each, the independent polling puts the Democratic candidate ahead. In Arizona, Sen. Mark Kelly (D) has never trailed Republican Blake Masters, with Fox News putting Kelly up 8 points. In Pennsylvania, Dr. Oz is in need of campaign CPR if you believe Fox News, which has him behind Democrat John Fetterman by 11 points, although Trafalgar puts the margin at just 4 points. In Wisconsin, Johnson — the incumbent Republican — lags Democrat Mandela Barnes in both the Marquette Law and Fox News polls.

The numbers are not the whole story

Senate Democrats have two major problems that they simply cannot solve: the disadvantage of holding the White House and a recent history of bad polling.

The bottom line for midterm elections is that they are bad for a president’s party. Even with a likely drag from the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision and the unending, unhelpful antics of Trump, Republicans look to get a boost just from being out of power. Undecided voters are more likely than not to move away from the party in power.

Adding two or three points to each Republican Senate candidate is a good rule-of-thumb. Following that rule, Republicans would take Ohio, North Carolina, Florida and possibly Nevada. Herschel Walker in Georgia would be in a dead heat with incumbent Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock, and Donald Bolduc would be right on the heels of New Hampshire’s Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan. That puts control of the Senate on a razor’s edge.

Even more concerning for Democrats should be the terrible polling in 2020 and 2021. In both years, the media polls overestimated Democratic strength. And that overestimation was most severe at the state level. As bad as the state-level polling was on Trump’s numbers, it was terrible for Senate races. GOP incumbents assumed to be in trouble or in tight races breezed to reelection. Polling was mixed in 2021 with most of the nonpartisan polls off from three to eight points in New Jersey. The Virginia polling was better, but those results were complicated by Trump’s late endorsement of Glenn Youngkin — an unhelpful intrusion that likely cost Youngkin votes.

The bottom line is that control of the Senate is still very much in doubt.

While Arizona, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are looking to be very difficult, only Arizona looks like it is slipping out of reach. Given the tightness of the races and the cyclical advantage Republicans hold, it would not take much to push several of their candidates over the top for a majority.

The alternate is also true. The determination of Trump to meddle in races and his continued high unpopularity are a significant drag for Republicans. Given his penchant for self-destruction, he could well end up being a bigger millstone for GOP candidates that Joe Biden is for the Democrats.

McConnell could have hardly expected the slow wind-down of his political career to be derailed by an amateur campaign strategist like Donald Trump. Nor could he have imagined that Trump could pick a series of dud candidates in critical races. But the structural advantage of being out of power and the low popularity of Biden could still bail out the Republicans and make him Senate majority leader. But make no mistake: If Republicans fail to gain the majority, McConnell is going to make certain he is not the one to take the fall.

Keith Naughton, Ph.D., is co-founder of Silent Majority Strategies, a public and regulatory affairs consulting firm. Naughton is a former Pennsylvania political campaign consultant. Follow him on Twitter @KNaughton711.