Pay very close attention to state court contests; it’s about more than elections

After the post-2020 election fiasco, with Donald Trump trying to overturn a legitimate election, there is more focus on state election officials with electoral and voting responsibilities, governors and secretaries of state — and state supreme courts, which in a number of battleground states are elected: Michigan, Ohio, North Carolina and Pennsylvania, to cite a few. Other than Pennsylvania, they are in play this year with big political implications.

Redistricting and voting rights have been major legal controversies in these states. With the U.S. Supreme Court decision in June to end 50 years of federal abortion rights, turning the issue back to the states, these courts could play a critical role.

Republicans say they’re geared up, realizing as a spokesman declared, these courts “will affect the redistricting process for the next decade.” Democrats, who were caught napping a decade ago on state legislative redistricting, insist they’re ready this time.

A good place to start is North Carolina. The Democrats on that supreme court have rejected the right-wing Republican legislature’s repeated racial and partisan gerrymandering on congressional and state legislative districts.

The Democrats’ 4-3 majority is endangered this year, as two of their members are up for reelection, including Sam Ervin IV, the grandson of the legendary Watergate Senator.

If the GOP wins one of those seats, it’s expected to bring back a new map for congressional districts in 2024 that will be even more partisan.

That wouldn’t be necessary if they win the “independent legislature” case they brought to the U.S. Supreme Court. Basically, this would cut state courts out of redistricting, and maybe election challenges altogether, giving a blank check to the state legislature. What had been considered a fringe view may find receptivity from this Republican Supreme Court.

On abortion, North Carolina’s Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper has countered some Republican efforts to curb protections. But the GOP hopes to pick up enough state legislative seats to override any Cooper veto. It then would go to the state courts.

A few months ago, Republicans were confident they could win those two supreme court elections. But Mac McCorkle, a Duke professor and former top Democratic strategist, says the environment has changed. “Ever since Dobbs (the U.S. Supreme Court decision), there has been a palpable move towards Democrats in North Carolina.”

The stakes also are big in Ohio, where there are three seats up on the state court and Democrats probably have to win two of them to take control.

The Ohio court, with the Republican chief justice joining three Democrats, twice threw out blatant gerrymandering of both state and congressional districts. The Republican legislature basically ignored these orders and ran out the clock.

The rule of law in what has become arguably the most corrupt state in America, is an inconvenience.

One of the GOP justices on the Ohio supreme court is the son of the governor and votes on issues affecting his father. Another justice has compared the 1973 Roe abortion rights decision to slavery.

Republicans have the advantage in the Buckeye state, with Gov. Mike DeWine headed to reelection, although the U.S. Senate race there is a tossup.

There is no better contemporary example of the political significance of a state supreme court than Michigan. In 2020, the Democrats won a majority for the first time in more than two decades. “That has been a huge deal,” notes Bill Ballenger, publisher of the Ballenger Report on Michigan politics. He expects the two justices up for election this year — one a Democrat the other a Republican — will win, with Democrats retaining their 4-3 majority.

With the Dobbs decision, Michigan was slated to revert to a 1931 law banning abortions. That was thrown out by a Michigan judge. A few days ago, the Michigan supreme court, over the objections of some Republicans, approved putting an abortion rights referendum on the November ballot.

In a state that is overwhelmingly pro-choice, that’s a big boost for Democrats, from Gov. Gretchen Whitmer on down the ballot.

Elsewhere, in one heavily Democratic state, Illinois, there are two state court seats up in October; if Republicans win both, they would take control of the court and be positioned to thwart Democratic initiatives. That may be uphill.

Several other states, including Montana and Kentucky, feature a direct contest between a pro-choice Democrat and an anti-abortion Republican.

The outcome of a number of these races may be affected by the national political climate this fall. One Republican edge is well-heeled business support in states like Ohio. But in most of the competitive contests, Democrats are fielding women candidates, which this year may be a real advantage.

Al Hunt is the former executive editor of Bloomberg News. He previously served as reporter, bureau chief and Washington editor for The Wall Street Journal. For almost a quarter century he wrote a column on politics for The Wall Street Journal, then The International New York Times and Bloomberg View. He hosts Politics War Room with James Carville. Follow him on Twitter @AlHuntDC.