Why Democrats’ midterm optimism could be misguided

As Democrats voice growing confidence about their midterm election prospects, two trends suggest that the party’s newfound sense of optimism may be misguided. 

Taken together, unrelenting inflation and the potential for a 2020-like polling error that overestimates Democrats’ strength could indicate that the Democratic Party is in a more fragile position than most in the media are currently acknowledging or appreciating. Earlier in the year, a red-wave midterm election — on par with 1994, when Republicans gained 54 U.S. House seats and flipped control of both houses of Congress — seemed almost inevitable.

But since mid-June, Democrats’ position has been strengthened by declining gas prices, the national backlash to Roe v. Wade being overturned and GOP candidate-quality issues in key Senate races. As things stand, Democrats are now favored to retain control of the Senate and are expected to just narrowly lose the House.

However, the release of the worse-than-expected August inflation report this week — which showed that food, housing and healthcare costs continued to soar last month — served as a pointed reminder that the economy still poses a significant threat to Democrats’ chances in November.

Reacting to August’s inflation data — and to the increasing possibility of a severe economic downturn in the U.S. — stocks fell to their worst day since June 2020 last Tuesday.

Just as inflation is a palpable economic trend that directly impacts Americans’ daily lives, the stock market is a visible statistic that many use as a barometer for the health of the overall economy.

Thus, given the renewed national focus on rising prices and the sinking stock market, it is difficult to envision a scenario in which voters’ economic anxieties don’t translate into a referendum on Democratic leadership in November. 

Though, it does remain to be seen whether Republicans, whose midterm message has become increasingly erratic, will be able to use this latest economic news fully to their advantage.

The same day that the inflation report was released, GOP Sen. Lindsay Graham (R-S.C.) introduced a national abortion ban bill. This ultimately could buoy Democrats’ efforts to shift voter focus away from their greatest vulnerability — the economy — and toward protecting abortion rights, an issue that has helped Democrats climb in the polls.

That being said, Democrats’ strength in polls may actually be overstated.

In a column for the “New York Times” last week, political analyst Nate Cohn cautioned that “the same polling warning signs are flashing again,” as Democratic Senate candidates are outpacing expectations in the same places where the polls overestimated Joe Biden in 2020, most notably in Wisconsin.

His analysis finds that there is a consistent link between the strength of Democratic Senate candidates today and polling error in the 2020 presidential election. While Cohn is careful to note that we cannot immediately decipher why this is — or if this will translate to a similar polling error in the 2022 election — he does cite the problem of non-response bias since the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade as a potential cause. 

Put another way, if poll respondents in key swing states — like Wisconsin — are meaningfully more liberal or Democratic than those who are not answering polls, this could suggest that Democrats’ current public polling lead in those states could be significantly overstated.

If the polls end up being just as wrong as they were in 2020, per Cohn’s analysis, Democrats will end up losing Senate races in Wisconsin, North Carolina and Ohio, which they are currently favored to win. Democrats would still likely win Pennsylvania and Arizona; however, control of the Senate would come down to two states: Nevada and Georgia. 

To be sure, many pollsters — including my firm — are making strides to deal with the challenges associated with non-response bias to avoid overstating Democrats’ current support levels.  

Even if the polling error this year is less than in 2020, it would still be a mistake for Democrats to grow complacent — or worse, to be overconfident — based on their apparent lead, especially given the recent pessimistic economic news. 

In the final weeks of the campaign, Democrats need to make a concerted effort to demonstrate fiscal prudence and discipline as the rising cost of living continues to weigh on American families. The party needs to show voters how they have worked — and will continue to work — to lower costs for American families, secure America’s energy independence and avoid additional tax increases.

In addition to doubling down on efforts to rally their base around the issue of abortion rights, speaking to voters’ economic anxieties and frustrations —  especially in swing states — is absolutely critical in order for Democrats to have a fighting chance at keeping control of the Senate and cutting their losses in the House.

Douglas E. Schoen is a political consultant who served as an adviser to President Clinton and to the 2020 presidential campaign of Michael Bloomberg. His new book is “The End of Democracy? Russia and China on the Rise and America in Retreat.”