The odds of the Democrats holding the Senate are getting smaller by the day

Despite facing an unfavorable national political environment and historical midterm trends that benefit the out-party, Democrats are still slightly favored to retain their Senate majority. 

The combination of national backlash to the Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade and “candidate quality issues” on the Republican side has helped keep the upper chamber in play for Democrats. 

However, recent polling suggests that the political tides in the Senate are shifting back toward Republicans, as GOP candidates in key toss-up races are gaining ground, including in Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. 

In Arizona and Nevada, Trump-backed candidates have improved their position against incumbent Democrats.  

Sen. Mark Kelly’s (D-Ariz.) lead over his extreme right-wing opponent, Blake Masters (R-Ariz.), has shrunk from 10-points to 6-points over the last month, per a recent Fox News poll. A CBS News poll taken last week showed Kelly with just a 3-point lead, which falls within the survey’s margin of error. 

While Kelly is regarded as one of the strongest Democratic Senate candidates vying for a competitive seat, abortion — the central issue national Democrats are campaigning on — does not rank as highly in terms of Arizona voters’ top priorities as the core themes in the Republican agenda, namely inflation, the economy, or immigration. 

Indeed, Arizona voters widely prioritize economic issues (45 percent) over abortion rights (18 percent), a new poll by Data for Progress shows. Immigration — and border security, more specifically — is also a particular area of concern for Arizonians and voters think Masters, rather than Kelly, would support policies that make the border more secure. 

Incumbent Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nev.) will face an even tougher battle for reelection against Adam Laxalt (R-Nev.), who — unlike most other GOP Senate candidates — is a relatively experienced politician and somewhat less extreme, notwithstanding his embrace of the right’s 2020 election denialism. 

RealClearPolitics’ average of recent polls now puts Laxalt up by 1.7-points, while Cortez Masto held a nearly 4-point lead in late August and early September, and Laxalt also leads by 5-points with Independent voters, per a recent CNN poll.  

Nevada is generally considered to be a bellwether state in national elections. As a “diverse state with growing minority populations and a widening urban-rural divide” the state represents “a microcosm of America,” as Nevada Independent chief executive, Jon Ralston, noted in his piece for the “New York Times” earlier this month. 

Cortez Masto is facing the same headwinds as national Democrats — growing concerns about rising prices and inflation, as well as the decline in support for the Democratic Party among Hispanic voters. Her success, or lack thereof, will likely be indicative of Democrats’ performance nationally. 

Wisconsin, Ohio and Pennsylvania are all Republican-held seats, although Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) is the only incumbent, as Sens. Rob Portman (R-Ohio) and Pat Toomey (R-Pa.) are retiring.  

In Wisconsin, Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes (D) opened up a 4-point lead over Johnson in late August, when Democrats were making gains nationally. However, there has been an 8-point swing to Johnson since then, and he now leads Barnes by 4-points, according to a “Fox News” poll.  

Further, as Nate Cohn noted in a recent analysis for the “New York Times,” Wisconsin was “ground zero for survey error” in the last election. Polls in the state greatly overestimated Joe Biden’s strength in 2020 — Biden was polling 10-points ahead of Trump before the election, yet ended up winning the state by less than 1 percent — which could suggest that Johnson is in an even stronger position than most polls are currently capturing. 

There has also been a considerable movement toward the Republican candidate in the Pennsylvania Senate race. John Fetterman (D-Pa.) enjoyed a 9-point lead over Mehmet Oz (R-Pa.) in mid-August, due to the relevance of the abortion issue and the prevalence of negative media coverage about Oz’s residency in the state and medical advice. However, a recent Emerson College poll found Fetterman with just a 2-point lead, which is within the margin of error. 

Johnson’s and Oz’s gains are attributable to increased GOP spending on ads attacking Democrats in both states for inflation and the economy and for being soft on crime.  

Given the worsening state of the economy — considering the latest September economic data, which showed a bigger-than-expected rise in consumer prices, as well as the likelihood that gas prices tick up due to OPEC+ oil cuts — these attacks could very well translate to a victory for Johnson and possibly even for Oz. 

Taken together, this evidence suggests that Democrats’ advantage in the Senate could be dissipating, and increases the likelihood that Republicans will win a majority in the upper chamber. 

Douglas E. Schoen is a political consultant who served as an adviser to President Clinton and to the 2020 presidential campaign of Michael Bloomberg. His new book is “The End of Democracy? Russia and China on the Rise and America in Retreat.”