After 700 days of punditry (and what seems like 700 fundraising emails every day), the midterm elections stagger to an exhausting finale. Now, the predictions become as relevant as my wildly overconfident forecast that I’d be watching the Mets in the World Series today. Instead, I’ll be watching early returns in pure toss-up races. Keep this list handy: These early results won’t be determinative but will indicate some early trends:
7 p.m.
The first round of polls will close at 7 Eastern Time in three key states: Georgia, Indiana and Virginia.
Georgia Senate: Unless a Georgia election official is asked to “find” 11,000 votes, the results between Raphael Warnock and Herschel Walker will be an overture to the rest of the night (and the next two years) for both parties. A quick flip by Republicans pressures the Democrats to convert a Republican seat elsewhere. A Warnock victory gives Democrats a fighting chance to retain the majority. (If neither candidate secures more than 50 percent of the vote, a statistical possibility because a third-party candidate is running, there will be a runoff.)
Ind.-1: In Gary and its environs, Democratic incumbent Rep. Frank Mrvan is in a surprising toss-up race against Jennifer Ruth Green. According to the Cook Political Report, Republicans haven’t targeted the district “in eons.”
Va.-2 and Va.-7: The results in these two toss-up Democrat-held districts will be an early bellwether of the rest of the nation. In Tidewater, Democratic incumbent Elaine Luria faces Navy veteran and State Senator Jenn Kiggans. In the northern Virginia exurbs, Abigail Spanberger has watched her race shift from “toss-up” to “lean Democratic” and back to “toss-up” in the Cook Political Report House ratings.
7:30 p.m.
Polls close at 7:30 in North Carolina and Ohio, where two U.S. Senate and four House races could go either way.
A Democrat flip of either Senate seat in North Carolina or Ohio would jar Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) A GOP retention of both preserves the status quo and suggests that the Senate majority will be decided later in the evening.
N.C.-13: State courts redrew the 13th Congressional District to be a competitive seat in the blue-trending Raleigh suburbs. It’s being contested by Republican Bo Hines and Democratic State Senator Wiley Nickel.
Ohio-1, 9,13: In Ohio-1, the suburbs of Cincinnati, Republican incumbent Rep. Steve Chabot landed in a gerrymandered Biden +9 district. Ohio-9, Toledo, features one of the more entertaining races (by “entertaining,” I mean “Game of Thrones” meets “To Tell The Truth”): Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur faces off against J.R. Majewski, a MAGA rapper who, according to widespread media reports, falsely claimed he served in combat in Afghanistan. Finally, in the jigsaw of a district that is Ohio-13, the race between Republican Madison Gesiotto Gilbert and State Rep. Emilia Sykes is rated a pure toss-up by Cook.
8 p.m.
A slew of races will begin crystallizing for the rest of the night in Connecticut, Illinois, Maine, New Jersey, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island:
Conn.-6: Few pundits would have included this district in a “must watch” race on Election Night. Incumbent Democrat Jahana Hayes faces Republican former State Sen. George Logan. Hayes has been criticized for slow fundraising and an unforced Zoom error, in which she was recorded saying: “This bleak outlook is overemphasized, Democrats singlehandedly saved the economy.”
Ill.-13 and 17: Ill.-13, near St. Louis, became favorable to Democrats in redistricting. Democrat Nikki Budzinski has heavily outspent an opponent who, at this writing, has not received significant support from outside GOP groups. Meanwhile, Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chair Cheri Bustos’s retirement has opened this seat to a spirited tossup between former meteorologist Eric Sorensen, a Democrat, and GOP attorney Esther Joy King.
Maine-2: Democratic incumbent Rep. Jared Golden always faced a tough fight in this notoriously swing district. His rematch against former Rep. Bruce Poliquin bears watching.
N.J.-7: Democratic incumbent Rep. Tom Malinowski finds himself in a lean-Republican district against State Sen. Tom Keane Jr.
Pa. Senate: Here’s another marquis Senate race, between Democrat John Fetterman and Republican Mehmet Oz. The race has shifted from “lean Democrat” to “toss-up” in the past weeks. A Democratic flip here would presage an encouraging night for Democrats (unless it’s offset by a defeat in Georgia).
Pa.-7, Pa.-8, Pa.-17: In Pa.-7 (Lehigh Valley), Democratic incumbent Susan Wild finds herself in a gerrymandered district that has, according to Cook, morphed from Biden +5 to just Biden +0.6. In Pa.-8, the Scranton area, another Democratic incumbent, Rep. Matt Cartwright, battles in a district that has shifted from reliably blue to favoring Trump. Pa.-17, near the Pittsburgh suburbs, is an open seat vacated by former Rep. Conor Lamb; Cook calls this race a “good national bell-weather.”
R.I.-2: That’s right, Rhode Island features a pure toss-up race that few would have predicted. Democratic incumbent Jim Langevin’s retirement has opened the seat to a spirited contest between Republican Allan Fung (former mayor of Cranston) and Democratic State General Treasurer Seth Magaziner. Three recent polls show Fung with a slim lead. If the Democrats lose a Biden +14 district in Rhode Island, it will be hard to find an abundance of other congressional districts where they can compensate and retain the House majority.
That’s it, midterm fanatics — 20 races, 20 early indicators that may establish the trends for the rest of the night.
But don’t go anywhere. Stay where you are! Stay tuned! Coming up at 9 p.m. are Arizona, Colorado, Michigan, New York and Wisconsin.
Happy viewing.
Steve Israel represented New York in the U.S. House of Representatives over eight terms and was chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee from 2011 to 2015. He is now director of the Cornell Jeb E. Brooks School of Public Policy Institute of Politics and Global Affairs. Follow him on Twitter @RepSteveIsrael.