House Republicans haven’t had an effective leader in decades; that’s not going to change.
Very likely the GOP will win control of the House, with a razor-thin margin. It’s probable, though not certain, Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) would be elected Speaker.
The Speaker is elected in January by a majority of the House. Already some right-wingers and Trumpites are threatening to block him. There is not yet, however, a natural alternative.
The 57-year-old McCarthy has a solidly conservative voting record, pretty good political instincts and is a schmoozer who gravitates easily to rich donors. He’s light on substance — if you waded through his deepest policy thoughts, your ankles wouldn’t get wet — and has a political spine of Jell-O.
One reason so many Republicans despise Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) is envy. In an uphill battle, she secured passage of Obamacare, stood up steadfastly to Donald Trump and — with a tenuous majority — won approval of much of President Biden’s agenda. She is fearless, charming, tough and possesses very acute political antennae.
No Republican leader has been close to her equal.
Newt Gingrich led the insurgency that turned the House over to the GOP in 1994, the first time in 40 years. But he faltered as Speaker, was outmaneuvered by Bill Clinton, and after four years, the Republicans threw him out.
Gingrich was succeeded by Dennis Hastert, a mediocrity who later was sent to the slammer for having sexually abused young boys when he was a high school wrestling coach; the judge labeled him “a serial child molester.”
The next two Republican leaders, John Boehner and Paul Ryan, were done in by their own party. The politically talented Boehner lost the opportunity to lead with the 2010 election of Tea Party Republicans who had little interest in serious legislation. Paul Ryan, a policy maven, gave up his preferred chairmanship of the House Ways and Means Committee to succeed Boehner. He then had the misfortune to have to work with Donald Trump. Ryan retired in 2018.
Unlike Boehner or Ryan, McCarthy wouldn’t be impeded by principle.
“Every single time he has had to make a choice between what’s right or his political future, he chooses his political future,” says Liz Cheney, once in the leadership team with McCarthy until he turned against her for being anti-Trump.
Two days after the 2020 election, McCarthy said Trump won and warned “we cannot allow” anything to change that. He knew it wasn’t true. He blasted Trump after the Jan. 6 mob assault on the Capitol; a few weeks later, he was in Mar-a-Lago kissing the ring. He just happened to be in the neighborhood. He’s refused to stand up to extremists.
A Speaker McCarthy would have sharks — in his own caucus — circling him. He will try to feed them whatever they want.
Two figures to watch in any Republican-run Congress: Georgia Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene and Ohio’s Jim Jordan. Jordan would become chairman of the House Judiciary Committee. He has been accused of covering up a crime before he got to Congress. He was an assistant wrestling coach at Ohio State when the sports doctor was sexually abusing wrestlers and other male athletes. Six wrestlers and a referee said they told Jordan about the sexual abuse and he did nothing. Jordan denies it.
After a financial settlement to some victims, Ohio State wanted to move on — and all the facts have not been revealed. There’s an HBO documentary on the scandal in the works.
Jordan is a close ally of Trump — the Jan. 6 committee revealed he talked to Trump for ten minutes the day of the insurrection — so he will be looking for revenge. There likely will be impeachment proceedings against the Democrats, perhaps even against Biden if they can concoct a rationale. If the Justice Department indicts Trump, Jordan will go ballistic.
Greene’s incendiary rhetoric and aggressive confrontations were so out of line the House stripped her of all committee assignments. She has said the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11 were a hoax, claims Barack Obama is a secret Muslim, and once indicated support for executing Nancy Pelosi.
Robert Draper, author of “Weapons of Mass Delusion, When the Republican Party Lost its Mind,” is one of the few mainstream reporters to spend time with Greene. He says she’s not dumb. She is, however, given to crazy conspiracies, has trafficked with white nationalists and charges that Democrats are enemies of America.
But she’s a star on right-wing social media, close to provocateurs like Steve Bannon and has like-minded colleagues in the ‘crazy caucus.’ That gives her clout with McCarthy and confidence she’ll get what she wants — like a seat on the House Oversight Committee.
McCarthy’s insecurities were on display in his conversations with Mark Leibovich for a book, “Thank You for Your Servitude.” When asked if he worries “about how history will judge” him, Leibovich reports that McCarthy “looked at me as if I had three heads.”
McCarthy likes to compare the House of Representatives to a truck stop with its different elements. McCarthy’s truck stop, Leibovich notes, has attracted “more racists, freaks and extremists who once would have been assigned to the dark corner of the rest area.”
That’s the 2023 House Republicans, poised and eager for power.
Al Hunt is the former executive editor of Bloomberg News. He previously served as reporter, bureau chief and Washington editor for The Wall Street Journal. For almost a quarter century he wrote a column on politics for The Wall Street Journal, then The International New York Times and Bloomberg View. He hosts Politics War Room with James Carville. Follow him on Twitter @AlHuntDC.