Harris up, Biden and Buttigieg down in Democrat’s ‘iceberg’ primary

According to Politico, Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg is easily withstanding Republican attacks on his rudderless tenure. But that’s not the real story. Champagne corks are popping in Vice President Kamala Harris’s office as Buttigieg’s problems appear to be wrecking his chances to replace President Biden on the 2024 Democratic ticket if Biden chooses not to run. 

Given the continuing obsession with everything Trump and the various circuses in the Republican Party, much of the establishment media and punditocracy are ignoring the shadow primary unfolding for the 2024 Democratic nomination. Like an iceberg, this primary is mostly under the surface. After all, jockeying to replace an incumbent president who harbors hopes of a second term is fraught with risk. 

Even in a weakened state, incumbent presidents are almost impossible to dislodge if they want to run for reelection. You must travel back to the 19^th century to find a president shoved out of the way by his own political party. Even Lyndon Johnson could have retained the Democratic nomination in 1968 if he had been determined to keep it. It’s worth noting that Johnson still had the power to grab the nomination for his vice president, Hubert Humphrey, even though Humphrey did not contest a single primary. 

Incumbents are not kicked out; they choose not to run rather than face defeat. And every president wants to run for reelection. The idea that Joe Biden and his team would willingly hand the presidency to Kamala Harris, or anyone else, after four years was always ridiculous. As I wrote in 2021, “Biden and his loyalists did not spend the last 40 years slogging and scheming their way into power just to hand it over to a newcomer.” 

But Biden might not have a choice. His polling is weak, and the Dec. 20 YouGov poll had 54 percent opposing a Biden reelection run, compared to just 26 percent in favor. The discovery of top-secret records in his personal possession is not just a political embarrassment or potentially criminal; it helps Donald Trump wriggle off the hook for his own misconduct — an unforgivable sin among Democrats. Even the best excuse — that Biden doesn’t know what he’s doing — hardly helps. While not enough for Democrats to start abandoning ship, Biden’s documents blunder ends his brief post-midterm political honeymoon. 

Team Biden’s ‘Plan B’ takes a hit 

Even though Team Biden likely has always planned for reelection, they understand Biden’s precarious position as an 81-year-old hopeful with a history of verbal gaffes who won mostly because of who he wasn’t. There must be a “Plan B,” and in 2022 that “B” became Buttigieg. 

Nobody in the White House will ever admit it, but all the indirect evidence points to Team Biden trying out Buttigieg as a potential heir-apparent instead of Harris. As the midterm races started heating up and it looked like Republicans could be headed for a sweep, Secretary Pete mysteriously started showing up on the late-night talk shows and various Democrat-friendly news programs. The last time a transportation secretary had such a high profile was … never.

And Buttigieg was the only cabinet member raising his profile so aggressively. Members of a president’s cabinet do not just start showing up on the “Late Show” without the express approval of the president and his staff. Given Buttigieg is young, has been a candidate and performed creditably makes him a potential replacement. The fact of — and volume of — his appearances is the political equivalent of a smoking gun. 

And that smoking gun was pointed at Kamala Harris. 

Rumors have circulated about tension between Harris and Team Biden. Not only that, she was mostly nonexistent in the run-up to the midterms. Her weakened position opened the door for fellow Californian Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) to fire up his own not-so-subtle effort to raise his national profile. 

But it turns out being left with few responsibilities and kept in cold storage was a positive boon for Harris. On the coattails of his media tour, Buttigieg was hit with the Southwest Airlines meltdown and a major Federal Aviation Administration computer outage. And politically, Buttigieg cannot afford to spend time — though he must — digging out of that mess. While it is fair to say that Buttigieg had little control over either of those issues, the fact is that while politicians take credit for everything under the sun once he or she walks into office, the flipside is that you’re stuck taking the blame, too. 

Harris is the clear frontrunner for the Democratic nomination should Biden decline. She leads every credible challenger in every poll and most by double-digits (except a silly McLaughlin poll that includes Michelle Obama). Alternately, Buttigieg’s best poll was a December YouGov poll, with 14 percent, but he has mostly been stuck in the 10-11 percent range. He is barely ahead of Newsom or Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) — with margins well within the polling margin of error. 

As a young up-and-comer, Secretary Pete maybe had an outside chance as potentially the first gay major-party nominee, with national electoral experience — he ran decently in the 2020 primaries, while Harris didn’t make it to Halloween. 

But Harris checks more of the Democrats’ identity boxes. The very idea that a minority female vice president could be denied the Democratic nomination stretches credulity indeed. Harris is — and always was — the prohibitive favorite to be the next Democratic nominee not named Joe Biden. 

Looking forward to 2024, Kamala Harris is flying high, Joe Biden is losing altitude, and Pete Buttigieg is grounded.

Keith Naughton, Ph.D., is co-founder of Silent Majority Strategies, a public and regulatory affairs consulting firm. Naughton is a former Pennsylvania political campaign consultant. Follow him on Twitter @KNaughton711.