Is a Democrat headed for the Mississippi governor’s mansion?

Now that you all have placed your Super Bowl bets and don’t want to be a chalk-eater, here’s a good underdog wager: A Democrat will win the Mississippi governor’s race this year.

Yeah, sounds crazy.

The deep-red Magnolia State went overwhelmingly for Donald Trump, hasn’t voted for a Democratic president since 1976, for a U.S. Senator in 40 years — and not for a Democratic governor in almost a quarter century.

But incumbent Gov. Tate Reeves is not very popular. A Siena college poll last month showed 57 percent would prefer someone else, and Reeves barely leads the Democratic candidate, Brandon Presley — it’s within the margin of error.

Presley is a compelling candidate with promising issues. The Republican-dominated state government has created a massive scandal, ripping off money intended for poor people to give to political supporters. The state has one of America’s worst health care systems.

An exciting and enterprising digital news site, Mississippi Today, is giving these entrenched politicians and scam artists nightmares with its scoops. It was founded by Andy Lack, the former chairman of NBC News.

Presley may be uniquely suited to the moment. He has been a very effective and popular state utility regulator, voting against rate hikes and saving consumers billions. Republicans will have a hard time painting him as a left-wing Bernie Bro. Presley lives in a small town, in the same house where he grew up. He’s pro-life and pro-gun, requisites in Mississippi.

“Brandon is the best candidate Democrats have had in many years,” says Curtis Wilkie, a renowned national political reporter before returning almost 20 years ago to teach writing and journalism at his alma mater, Ole Miss. Wilkie told me, “He’s a bona fide populist, not a phony like Trump; he’s someone who’ll kick ass with big time people on behalf of little people.”

Presley made his announcement at a rural hospital that had to close. He stressed his deep Mississippi roots going back to “Mama” raising three kids, teaching at a church school after losing her job at a garment factory. His father, an alcoholic, was murdered when he was in the third grade. Earlier, he was mayor of Nettleton, 15 miles from the hometown of the state’s most famous native son, his cousin Elvis.

He stressed the tragic state of health care: Mississippi has one of the highest percentages of uninsured in the country and ranks near the bottom in health care access and outcomes. The state’s health care commissioner warns that 28 rural hospitals are in serious danger of closing.

A major factor is the governor’s refusal to join the Affordable Health Care Act’s Medicaid expansion; it’s one now of only eleven states to reject this federal assistance.

The Siena survey says 80 percent of Mississippians want to accept Medicaid expansion. The governor, however, charges that, like “Obamacare,” this is “socialism,” socialized medicine.

Presley counters that it would bring in about $1 billion to the state to provide better coverage to as many as 300,000 Mississippians — and keep open many of the imperiled rural hospitals.

Already this year, the GOP-dominated state legislature refused to even allow a debate, much less a vote, on Medicaid expansion; it is working to establish rules that would make it very difficult for a citizens-initiated referendum to get on the ballot, and this week the House voted to create a separate court system and police force within the predominately Black city of Jackson, the state capitol, to be set up by white officials.

The combination of an excellent candidate and the GOP’s arrogance and corruption give Presley a chance.

Some $77 million of welfare funds for poor people were illicitly channeled to political supporters and big shots.

Presley charges the governor is “caught in the middle of the largest public corruption scandal in state history.”

The most egregious example before Reeves was elected in 2019, was $5 million in funds for poor people going to the University of Southern Mississippi for a volleyball court.

Reeves blames the current scandal on the administration of his predecessor, Republican Gov. Phil Bryant — but Mississippi Today reported that $1.3 million of the scam went to Reeves’s personal trainer for a fitness center, along with a $300,000 “bonus.” As Lt. Governor, before winning his current office, Reeves had an oversight role in the state budget.

The state hired an investigator, former U.S. Attorney Brad Pigott, to get to the bottom of the corruption. After he issued subpoenas to powerful players, he was fired last summer. “I guess I was getting too close,” Pigott told me in an interview. “Gov. Reeves has appointed himself commander in chief of the cover-up.”

In his Mississippi vernacular, Presley will channel Lord Acton’s observation that “power corrupts, and absolute power corrupts absolutely.” The Mississippi government today is rife with Actonites.

Al Hunt is the former executive editor of Bloomberg News. He previously served as reporter, bureau chief and Washington editor for The Wall Street Journal. For almost a quarter century he wrote a column on politics for The Wall Street Journal, then The International New York Times and Bloomberg View. He hosts Politics War Room with James Carville. Follow him on Twitter @AlHuntDC.