In 1996, President Clinton pursued a reelection strategy of “triangulation” — politically, a made-up term that meant running to the middle in order to win, a tried-and-true strategy that worked for Clinton as it has for many others in American presidential politics.
For President Biden, “triangulation” is not on the table given the highly polarized nature of American politics. His own progressive left base won’t hear of it. Instead, Biden is pursuing a more modest “zigzag” strategy, throwing favors from time to time to the middle and to labor.
Recently the Biden administration approved (rather, failed to oppose) a huge new hydrocarbons project in Alaska. Just weeks later, Biden proposed a set of automotive tailpipe emissions that will severely limit the number of gasoline-powered cars sold starting in 2027. This neat zigzag was perfect for Biden. He gets to take credit with labor for approving a big job-creating project in time for the next election, while giving the environmentalists a big future regulatory win.
But will this strategy work?
It has worked in the past under different circumstances. In 1996, Democrats were so desperate they would swallow just about anything to win. Democrats had lost five of the last seven presidential elections and had not re-elected one of their own since 1944. In 2012, President Obama was a charismatic celebrity, yet also a timid, conventional, center-leftist. After passing Obamacare, he shrank from any other major initiatives (and Obamacare did not come into force until after the 2012 elections).
Catering to significant parts of the progressive left — along with a big helping of Republican incompetence — has taken care of any real party primary opposition. As a very old white guy, Biden was not expected by many in the chattering classes to run for reelection; however, readers of this column may recall my observation in 2021 that Biden and his allies did not spend decades scheming and scraping for power in Washington to just throw in the towel after a couple of years.
In spite of his occasional apostasy, Biden still scores well with liberals. Biden has an approval rating of 84 percent with Democrats generally, and 82 percent with self-described liberals. He does have some erosion in the ballot test with Trump, scoring 77 percent of Democratic votes (9 percent of Republicans), but 70 percent of liberals (11 percent of conservatives). Seven percent of Democrats said that they would not vote, as opposed to 8 percent of liberals. This erosion does seem like more than a little posturing. It is difficult to see liberals voting for Trump or sitting out 2024 once they get another dose of Trump on the campaign trail.
Biden’s other possible rivals, Vice President Kamala Harris and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, have had a rough couple of years. Harris’s polling numbers are bad. Her approval ratings are worse than Biden’s, and she performs worse than the president in ballot tests against both Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. And poor Pete, who may have thought he would spend four years cutting ribbons and coasting at DOT, has been confronted with real problems that defied McKinsey & Company alumna magic. Neither Harris nor Buttigieg is in a position to nudge Biden into retirement.
Biden has drawn some Democratic primary opposition: Robert Kennedy, Jr. and Marianne Williamson. But that’s opposition only in the most narrow, legal sense of the term. Thirty years ago, a Kennedy running in the Democratic primary would have been a fearsome prospect. But today, this Kennedy is not so much competing with Biden for the nomination as he is competing with Williamson for the “kookiest candidate” award. The Democratic primary will feature some (unintentional) laughs from Williamson and perhaps the final, ignominious end of the Kennedy name in American politics.
Biden still narrow favorite for reelection
The name of the game for Democrats is still reelection, and that is far more uncertain.
There is bad news and good news for Biden. The bad news is the public does not want Biden to run. In last week’s YouGov benchmark, 58 percent of Americans did not want Biden to run again, including 31 percent of Democrats. Trump fares about as bad with 57 percent opposing another Trump run. Independents, however, are somewhat less enthused about a Biden run (65 percent opposed) than a Trump run (59 percent opposed).
Respondents rated Biden’s worst job performance on economic matters. He was underwater at 36 percent approve to 56 percent disapprove on inflation and 42 percent approve to 50 percent disapprove on the economy. This contrasts to his overall approve/disapprove of 47 percent to 49 percent. With economic issues perennially at the top of voter concerns, Biden’s poor ratings are a big structural problem.
The good news for Biden is mostly all the bad news surrounding Trump. Trump remains less popular than Biden with a 45 percent to 51 percent deficit in the YouGov poll. The RealClearPolitics approval average has Trump 17.4 points under water, while Biden’s deficit is 10.3 points.
Trump’s recent jump in the GOP primary polls against DeSantis is also good news. DeSantis has performed slightly better than Trump against Biden — but that modest difference could be due to a lack of name recognition. Voters tend to sit on the fence when a disliked somebody is matched against a poorly known opponent. The RealClearPolitics approval average has DeSantis at a mere 0.2 points deficit – which passes for incredible popularity in today’s politics (Kamala Harris is negative 13.5).
DeSantis also could present a youthful, energetic contrast to an aged Biden. The downside of DeSantis’s inexperience and the likely blunders that come with it is balanced by Biden’s 40-year history of being a gaffe-machine — a trend that does not seem to be abating.
Intangibles sink Trump
The RealClearPolitics average has Trump ahead by just under 2-points, although that includes the Trump-friendly Rassmussen poll (Trump +7).
The Five-Thirty-Eight aggregation of polls generally shows Biden and Trump trading places with just the aforementioned Rassmussen and the (Trump client) McLaughlin polls giving Trump outsized leads.
Expect a re-run of the 2020 campaign for Biden, where he just ran as “not Trump.” For Democrats, this strategy seems likely to work. If anything, Trump is getting more chaotic. His running mate could accentuate the chaos rather than calm the waters, as Mike Pence did.
Trump still is mostly consumed with his grievances about the past. That’s not what swing voters want to hear.
In addition, Biden now controls the levers of power in the federal government. He can dole out favors and promises, whether big student loan give aways or federal grants. If supply chains start returning back to normal, inflation should ease — which is Biden’s biggest political headwind.
In short, Republicans cannot count on the economy staying bad forever, and they should probably expect a burst of interventions to improve conditions leading up to the election.
For Biden, keeping his own squabbling party unified, combined with facing Trump, is the recipe for reelection. And so far, that is working.
Keith Naughton, Ph.D., is co-founder of Silent Majority Strategies, a public and regulatory affairs consulting firm. Naughton is a former Pennsylvania political campaign consultant. Follow him on Twitter @KNaughton711.