Could 2024 be the year a third-party candidate finally breaks through?

What if we asked a highly sophisticated artificial intelligence program to analyze all Americans eligible to be president and come up with the names of everyone who has the characteristics required for someone in that important job — things like character, competence, integrity and common sense. 

Raise your hand if you think the names “Joe Biden” or “Donald Trump” would show up in the top million names the AI program would spit out. Besides Biden, Trump and maybe members of their immediate families, I’m guessing not a lot of hands would go up.

But here we are. Almost nobody wants Joe Biden to run again, and yet he is running, and with only token opposition from within his party. And just about nobody outside the MAGA right wants Donald Trump to run again, either, and yet he’s (at least for now) light years ahead of his nearest likely opponent, Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-Fla.). 

How is this good for the country? Short answer: It isn’t. One man would be 86 at the end of his second term — and if you think he’s not mentally up to the job now, you can’t believe he’s going to get sharper as he gets older. As for the other man, he was the first American president who tried to stay in office even after he lost — and who arguably instigated the riot at the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, by telling his most loyal fans that Democrats stole the 2020 presidential election right out from under him.

And this time around voters are going to have to decide if they really want to vote for Biden with Vice President Kamala Harris waiting in the wings in case the president doesn’t make it all the way through a second term. You think he’s unpopular? Americans think even less of her. Can you think of anything pertinent Harris has said since she’s been in office? How about something coherent on matters of policy? What she’s best known for is that laugh, which pops up at all sorts of odd times.

If she’s on the ticket, voters will think twice before voting for Biden, especially if he’s running against a Republican not named Donald Trump, someone younger and more mentally fit than Biden, who would be 82 on Election Day.  

But even if he gets lucky and runs against the man he beat in 2020, he could still face an uphill battle. What if Trump picks Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) as his running mate? Or former ambassador Nikki Haley? They likely would appeal to the same moderate voters who don’t like Trump’s brashness but may hold their nose and vote for him anyway.

And Peggy Noonan makes a good point in her recent Wall Street Journal column about how nobody really wants to see a re-run of the 2020 presidential election. “If it starts to seem clear that America is once again locked into a Trump-Biden race,” she writes, “I think the electorate is going to get frisky. I don’t see people just accepting it. I see pushback and little rebellions.”

Pushback is already coming from Robert F. Kennedy Jr, who the polls tell us has 19 percent support among Democratic voters. I’m not suggesting he’s going to be the nominee, but he might cause Joe Biden some trouble. If Biden refuses to take part in a presidential debate, Kennedy likely will ask, “What’s he afraid of?” And that may get voters asking the same question.

As for third-party candidates — historically they don’t do well, but given the choice between Trump and Biden, a third-party candidate might emerge, especially since independents now outnumber members of each party. 

A February Gallup poll found that while 28 percent of Americans identified as Democrats, and 27percent as Republicans, 44 percent said they are independents. And a March Harvard-Harris poll found that 53 percent of Americans would consider voting for an independent moderate presidential candidate over either Biden or Trump.

Which brings us to West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin, a Democrat in a ruby red state. According to Washington Post columnist Henry Olsen, “A recent poll taken for Senate Republicans shows Manchin trailing his most likely challenger, termed-out Republican Gov. Jim Justice, by 10 points. If Justice gets into the race, Manchin’s hopes for reelection are slim to none.” Since that was written, Justice has gotten into the race, which led Olsen to conclude that, “That’s one reason Manchin might run for president as an independent. He’s got nowhere to go in his home state.”

Is a third-party candidate (Manchin or anyone else) likely? Maybe not. But given a choice between Biden and Trump, it’s not out of the question this time around.

You never know what kind of “little rebellions” those “frisky” voters may have in mind — to avoid a rematch of the 2020 race.

Bernard Goldberg is an Emmy and an Alfred I. duPont-Columbia University award-winning writer and journalist. He was a correspondent with HBO’s “Real Sports with Bryant Gumbel” for 22 years and previously worked as a reporter for CBS News and as an analyst for Fox News. He is the author of five books and publishes exclusive weekly columns, audio commentaries and Q&As on his Substack page. Follow him on Twitter @BernardGoldberg.