Donald Trump should be alarmed, and Nancy Pelosi should be concerned. The election results this week delivered messages to both. A House held by Democrats would translate into endless congressional investigations that the administration is logistically and temperamentally not suited to handle. The White House nightmares would no longer be restricted to Robert Mueller or the specter of impeachment. Rather, Trump, his family, and his staff would all likely receive a full political body scan.
Picture Wilbur Ross getting grilled on his questionable actions by the House Energy and Commerce Committee. Imagine Donald Trump Jr. and Jared Kushner facing the music in open session before Adam Schiff and the House Intelligence Committee. Think of Elijah Cummings, who would likely lead the House Oversight Committee if Democrats take the House, doing a deep dive on White House compliance with the emoluments clause. It would be a discomforting civics lesson. Then there is alleged abuse enabler Jim Jordan defending Trump, just in time for the 2020 contests. In the age of Trump, “law and order” is a punchline invoked by the party faithful now with less fervor and sincerity than “lock her up” with indicted Chris Collins the latest poster child of our times.
{mosads}As for Pelosi, the results in Ohio indicate that Republicans are in trouble, but they also signal that she is a burden for Democratic challengers outside blue precincts. Midwest suburbanites are tired of Trump, but they are also weary of the longtime California representative. As a result, Democratic candidates in competitive districts may be forced to disavow Pelosi as their next Speaker. Such is the possible price for seizing the reins of power. On that score, watch Danny O’Connor equivocate as to whether he would support handing Pelosi the gavel.
His dithering may have cost him the seat. Prudence dictated that he should have followed the lead of Conor Lamb. In fact, prudence looks like it was frequently ignored, starting with Pelosi herself. Her infamous interview with the Washington Post last year fell somewhere between hubris and delusion. “I am a master legislator,” she said. “I have a loom, and I bring all these different threads together.” At that rate, why not just go full “Almost Famous” and scream that she is a golden god?
Still, both Trump and Pelosi have reasons to smile. In Ohio, Troy Balderson saved the president from the embarrassment of a loss. In Kansas, Kris Kobach, another Trump favorite and fabulist, pulled off an upset win in the race for the Republican gubernatorial nod. As for the Democrats, socialism is no longer looking like the flavor of the month. In Michigan, Democrats gave Alexandria Ocasio Cortez and Bernie Sanders the thumbs down and instead tapped Gretchen Whitmer as their nominee for governor. Party regulars can exhale until the next crisis or November.
In hindsight, the New York primary win of Ocasio Cortez might have been isolated, driven more by the demographics of her district than by policy. To put things into perspective, incumbent Joe Crowley forgot that he represented a majority-minority district, where nearly half of its residents are latino. Politicians, like house guests, can wear out their welcome. With less than three months left to the midterm elections, neither party will have much room for error. The Republicans live in fear of the president, his ever present shadow, and his underwater poll numbers. Meanwhile, the Democrats must continue to marshal their unruly coalition.
How it all ends up this year has yet to fully unfold, but the contours of a blue wave are coming into focus. When Cathy McMorris Rodgers, a top House Republican, stands in danger of defeat, the party has a problem. Last week, Lindsey Graham posited that Democrats might even take the House with a margin of up to 12 seats to spare. Against this backdrop, Pelosi may even be secretly grinning. Trump? Not so much.
Lloyd Green was the opposition research counsel to the George H.W. Bush campaign in 1988 and later served in the U.S. Department of Justice. He is now the managing member of research and analytics firm Ospreylytics.