During the 2008 presidential campaign, former President Clinton made a fateful prediction. Hillary, he said, would face her biggest challenge in the primaries and not in the general election.
For Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R), the reverse probably will be true; the general election will be the more difficult of the two. That’s because he’ll be running against just one president in the primaries; he’ll likely face two in the general election if he even makes it that far.
Former President Trump hasn’t said “pick me or I’ll bolt” since he launched his 2024 campaign — not in so many words, anyway. He’s implied as much, however, more than once, including last December when he subtly teased a third-party run on his Truth Social website.
By the middle of next summer, Trump may have stopped teasing his supporters and taken the plunge. If so, the outcome of the 2024 election will be a foregone conclusion.
If Trump doesn’t get picked, he’ll almost certainly go rogue. And in a three-way race with the former president, DeSantis will be crushed. So why did the governor decide to run?
Three possible reasons come to mind. The first involves the name recognition needed to become president.
DeSantis is well-known in Florida but not outside of the state. Despite the threat of a split vote, he may be running for the national exposure he’ll get as a presidential contender.
The 2024 primaries will be an uphill fight for DeSantis, but he could lose and still gain from the experience. In the debates and on the trail, he’ll tell the American people who he is and what he stands for. If he’s a good salesman, millions will flock to his campaign, and he’ll have a base he can build on in four years — something he could never have had if he had deferred. This explanation works, even if DeSantis believes Trump will win going away.
The second theory for why DeSantis is running involves what Trump has actually done — or rather, not done yet. He has not said explicitly that he’ll bolt if he isn’t picked. As mentioned, he’s only implied he’ll do so.
Trump knows the move would help Democrats win in 2024. So why would he bolt? Rather than go rogue, he could put his party first, gracefully bow out if he’s not picked and go quietly into the night.
If DeSantis believes this with happen, though, he’s guilty of wishful thinking. Trump has never put his party first, and he surely wouldn’t start doing so after losing the nomination. Instead, he’ll just be Trump. He’ll claim he got robbed, trash the DeSantis delegates for dissing him and then run as an independent in order to punish the governor for “stealing” the nomination.
Consider one last reason DeSantis doesn’t seem as worried about the possibility of a split vote as might be expected. Maybe he thinks that if Trump isn’t picked, he will bolt, but he won’t get enough support to impact the outcome of the election.
The problem with this theory should be obvious as well. Trump got 74 million votes in 2020, the second-most ever in a U.S. election. According to the polls, he still has rock solid support among 25-30 percent of Republicans. As a third-party candidate, he’ll get at least as many votes as Ross Perot got in 1992 (19.7 million), and DeSantis will be doomed. In fact, Trump could bow out after not getting picked, and DeSantis still wouldn’t have a prayer against Biden; nor would any other Republican.
Prices are falling, and with the Fed’s 10 rate hikes and the Inflation Reduction Act lowering energy costs, the trend should continue through next year. If so, Biden will easily win reelection based on a strong economy, no matter who he faces in the fall of 2024.
So, the question bears repeating: Why did DeSantis decide to run? In fact, he probably should have deferred. He won’t gain anything by running unless the first theory is correct, and the exposure he gets helps him win the White House in 2028.
Mark Jarmuth volunteers for ELAP, a bar-sponsored nonprofit that provides low-cost/free legal services in the greater Seattle area.