Ron DeSantis is being harshly characterized by Democrats and attacked by Donald Trump. He has suffered steep declines in Republican poll ratings, and the flawed announcement of his candidacy for the Republican nomination for president added to his negatives.
The Florida governor’s poll ratings have not risen significantly in spite of a great deal of establishment conservative support.
Yet DeSantis’s assets and political potential are arguably underrated.
His first main asset, paradoxically, is his low rating in current polls. Sharply reduced poll ratings at the outset of his campaign give him the advantage of low expectations. If his polls go up through effective campaigning, fueled by ample campaign funds, this could set in motion an upward trend and lavish media exposure.
The fate of former frontrunners in primary election campaigns has often been tragic. Consider Henry (Scoop) Jackson in 1976, Gary Hart and Paul Tsongas in 1988, Tsongas again in 1992, Hillary Clinton in 2008, Rick Perry in 2012 and Chris Christie and Jeb Bush in 2016. Their stories all suggest that it is easier for a candidate with an effective campaign strategy to rise from low ratings than it is for a frontrunner to stay on top, especially if his or her foibles are exposed by the media.
DeSantis’s second asset is the public’s volatility. American voters’ readiness to change opinions about presidential candidates in party primaries has increased dramatically in recent times. Consider the Trump campaign in 2016 and the Biden campaign in 2020. Before he announced his candidacy for the Republican nomination in June, 2015, Trump’s poll ratings were around 4 percent. One month later, he was leading 16 credentialed Republican candidates, including four senators and six successful governors.
Likewise, after unimpressive debate performances and a fifth-place finish in the New Hampshire primary, Joe Biden’s 2020 campaign had been widely written off. But his surprise win in South Carolina after he was endorsed by Rep. Jim Clyburn (D-S.C.) turned Biden’s campaign around. No issues intervened — the only change was in the public mood.
DeSantis’s third asset is his character. He could have launched into an immediate six-figure career right after gaining his 3.75 GPA from Yale and his Juris Doctor from Harvard Law School. He chose instead to volunteer in the Navy and serve in Iraq. His net worth is cited as a very modest $320,000. These choices and facts contrast sharply with Trump’s embrace of wealth and documented ethical deficits.
This goes hand-in-hand with DeSantis’s fourth asset, his purposeful planning. With the background of an undergraduate major in history and legal skills that include participation in scholarly conferences while a congressman, DeSantis’s legislative successes in Florida were aided by careful preparation and realistic judgments.
DeSantis’s capacity for bold and independent action is his fifth asset. He holds strong conservative convictions, but his initiatives do not necessarily follow convention. For example, while the Republican Party strongly embraced fossil fuel production, in his gubernatorial campaign and as governor, DeSantis rejected fracking in Florida explicitly due to environmental concerns.
His sixth asset is his lack of bloviating. President Warren Harding prided himself on his ability to bloviate. He popularized this term for speaking in ways that hold attention while saying nothing. DeSantis favors cogent arguments rather than standard talking points. His aloofness and reluctance to engage in political courtship are regarded as significant campaign deficits. Yet, much like Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) on the left, DeSantis is authentic. If properly incorporated into an overall messaging strategy, this could help create separation from the public’s “deep skepticism of elected officials.”
DeSantis will have to bring all of these assets to bear as he challenges Trump. Social scientists’ studies of Trump’s attraction to voters include complex societal factors, but the Trump administration’s own explanation may better fit followers’ perceptions: “Donald Trump fought the establishment and won.” Trump tapped a vein of discontent, showing a genius for withstanding scandals — even legal and potentially criminal ethical charges — any of which would have banished ordinary politicians from public life.
National Review editor Rich Lowry describes Trump’s basic tactic thus: “Pretty much anything that happens fits into one of two buckets: a validating strength or a validating victimization.” This means that DeSantis must utilize his assets to convince a sufficient number of Trump voters that he has an equal ability to challenge the establishment, but that he can do it more effectively and within democratic norms of society. He will have to show the ability to withstand Trump’s verbal assaults. He will also have to expose Trump’s vulnerabilities without completely alienating Trump’s followers.
DeSantis’s core weakness, meanwhile, is his ideological rigidity. DeSantis’s skills that may attract Trump supporters horrify progressives, who regard DeSantis as more dangerous than Trump. An article in the New Republic describes Trump as undisciplined and “ a narcissist who likes feeling rich, powerful, and important. In contrast, DeSantis is a deeply conservative Catholic and a true believer in the culture wars he engages in…He has discipline, motivation, and an intimate knowledge of how to use the system to get what he wants.”
Besides DeSantis’s aggressive conservative initiatives in Florida, a hint of his constrained intellectual perspectives can be seen in a Newsmax interview with Eric Bolling shortly after he had declared his candidacy. DeSantis expressed disappointment that Trump had changed from 2016.
“Trump was coming at me from the left,” he said — which is to say, criticizing his conflict with Disney. It is surprising that a man with DeSantis’s academic credentials would not be aware of his main adversary’s opportunistic political background. Trump, after all advocated in 2000 for both a single-payer health system and a 14.25 percent wealth tax. He also expressed enthusiasm for Barack Obama’ s first year in office in 2009 in the first chapter of the book “The America we Deserve.” So how could there be any surprise that Trump would now attack DeSantis for taking conservative positions in his feud with Disney or votes long ago for conservative versions of Social Security reform?
If DeSantis is successful in overcoming Trump for the Republican nomination, his brittle politics may yet limit his appeal to minority groups, independents and disaffected Democrats in the 2024 election.
Frank T. Manheim is an affiliate professor at the Schar School of Policy and Government at George Mason University.