Mike Pence just cannot let go of his presidential fantasy.
Polling nearly nothing and headed down, Pence’s pointless candidacy reveals more about the Republican Party and its weak leadership than anything about the ex-vice president. Both Pence and GOP leadership suffer from battered spouse syndrome when it comes to former President Trump, and it’s ruining the future of both.
Pence could be the main opponent for Trump today. He could occupy the space Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) holds, but with better polling numbers. Too bad he choked in the clutch and surrendered his advantage to fear and confusion.
In the aftermath of Trump’s second impeachment and the downturn in his favorability among Republicans, Pence was better placed than any other Republican to become the alternative to Trump for 2024. Untainted by scandal, calm and reassuring, Pence could have held the mantle of all the policy positions supported by Trump voters without the schizophrenic indiscipline and manic rage that even many in the MAGA crowd found off-putting (and repelled independents into the Biden camp).
All Pence had to do was to come out resolutely against Trump as a future nominee. But, of course, he did not.
And the moment passed as Trump picked himself up and went on the attack, mercilessly hitting him with a constant stream of insults and claims of disloyalty. Pence responded by not responding and turned into a punching bag.
At a critical time when there was no real alternative to Trump and a new narrative could have been formed, a narrative of Trump as someone who failed to pass legislation, failed to win (or failed to “stop the steal”) and failed to hold up his end of the loyalty bargain, Pence was too cowed to enter into combat against the man who stabbed him in the back. When the heat was turned up, Pence wilted.
As a result, Republican voters have abandoned Pence in droves. In the RealClearPolitics average, Pence has not topped 10 percent in over a year. Back in February 2021, Pence was trailing Trump 42 percent to 18 percent — a fairly narrow margin given Trump’s grip on the GOP. Now Pence is scraping along with an average of less than 4 percent nationally. In recent polling by American Greatness, Pence scores just 4 percent in Christian conservative Iowa and a nearly nonexistent 1 percent in New Hampshire.
Pence is just the most obvious victim of the Republican battered spouse syndrome when it comes to Trump. Republican elected officials and grandees complain constantly about Trump, but it’s mostly off the record. Hardly any are willing to confront the former president in spite of his toxic effect at the ballot box for the GOP.
And Trump is vulnerable. Whether it is his failure to “build the wall,” backtracking on his anti-abortion stance, his response on COVID, lack of action on criminal justice or both him and his 2022 candidates losing, there is plenty of room to knock the former president down. But knocking Trump down is not something that can be done in a weekend. It will take a concerted effort over the course of months.
The pushback against Trump has been halting and sporadic. Every time a prominent Republican engages in any criticism, Trump’s aggressiveness and fury silences that critic or brings about a simpering apologia. The experience of Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio) is typical — in a tough race for an open seat, Trump couldn’t resist mocking Vance in front of his own rally for Vance’s past criticism. Once he won his seat and locked up a six-year term, Vance was free to be his own man. Yet Vance quickly endorsed Trump’s campaign for president, in spite of being publicly emasculated by Trump. Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) similarly has been the subject of repeated barbs and keeps coming back for more.
What the weak-kneed Washington, D.C., Republican crowd fails to appreciate is that opposing Trump means playing the long game, playing it intelligently and working together. Trump has too-high name ID and approval ratings to be knocked aside with one critical appearance on Fox News. Zeroing in on his vulnerable issues over time is what is necessary. Plus, there is strength in numbers — Trump cannot take on everyone.
There are Republicans who have successfully defied Trump. Sens. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska), Susan Collins (R-Maine) and Mitt Romney (R-Utah) have hit back at him and are still standing. Murkowski ran a smart reelection campaign built on her long record of serving the interests of Alaska. Collins easily won in 2020, and Romney remains popular in Utah.
But rather than picking out the strongest Trump issues and ditching the dysfunctional, undisciplined, losing candidate, Republican leaders are hoping he’ll change or just go away. And that kind of cowering, wishful thinking is what feeds Trump.
Of all the GOP leaders, Pence has paid the biggest price. While Pence played a more vacillating version of Hamlet, he was passed by DeSantis, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley and even entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, who was an absolute nobody just a year ago. Now Pence is entering a Republican primary field where he has no constituency and nothing to say. He is running on fumes.
Given his inability to come to grips with political reality, Pence might just stick around until his last breath. It’s hard to believe, but Jan. 6 might not be the most humiliating deed Trump does to his erstwhile loyal vice president.
Keith Naughton, Ph.D., is co-founder of Silent Majority Strategies, a public and regulatory affairs consulting firm. Naughton is a former Pennsylvania political campaign consultant. Follow him on Twitter @KNaughton711.