Could Trump defy the odds again?

The New York Post recently published an insightful editorial warning Republicans to “Beware the Trump Trap.” They caution against talking “obsessively” about former President Trump, because that is exactly what Democrats want.

They are correct. As he runs for a second term, President Biden will not be able to hide out in his basement, as he so successfully did in 2020; instead, he will hide behind a blizzard of negative Trumpian headlines.

What Democrats fear most is that Biden will have to defend his record (and his age) to Americans. The president’s dismal approval ratings on every major issue — the economy, foreign policy, immigration, crime — show he cannot do that and win, and they know it.

Instead, Biden and his colleagues want Trump to be the GOP nominee in 2024 and to go down in flames. They are convinced the former president cannot win in the general election. Curiously, that is not what the polls say; the Real Clear Politics average of surveys about a hypothetical match-up actually shows Trump up by 2 points. Remember that in 2020, Trump never led Biden in the polling.

Does Trump carry huge baggage? Absolutely. Just like Hillary Clinton in 2016, Trump’s “unfavorables,” currently at 55 percent, could undermine his chances. Approaching the Democrat convention in 2016, polls garnered headlines by revealing that Hillary was viewed as untrustworthy by a majority of voters. Ultimately, such candidates do not win elections.

Unless, of course, their rivals are carrying the same baggage. Biden today has exactly the same “favorable/unfavorable” ratings as Trump.

In 2020, Biden was considered by most Americans to be honest and moderate. He was also viewed as a trusted voice on foreign affairs. Neither is true now. As Americans question the wisdom of our stutter-step support for Ukraine, worry that Biden’s obsequiousness to China leaves our country at a disadvantage, and are horrified at the collapse of traditional alliances in the Middle East, the narrative that Trump is the less capable and trustworthy defender of our country rings hollow.

The Post is issuing cautions because they want Republicans to win in 2024, and they are not confident the former president can lead the party to victory. Many of us think there are other candidates who could better exploit Biden’s vulnerabilities and who could serve for eight years, but at the moment, it is hard to see anyone emerging to challenge Trump’s lead in the ever-expanding GOP field.

There are currently 13 people who are competing for the Republican nomination, including the governor of North Dakota, Doug Burgum, whose name is unknown to most voters, and anti-Trumper Chris Christie, who has as much chance of winning the nod as I do. Such a large field bolsters Trump’s chances. Currently, Trump leads his closest rival, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, by more than 30 points.

It is a long time until the election, and polls can shift. It may be that Republicans become wary of voting for a candidate who has been indicted on criminal charges. It might also be that Trump fatigue sets in, with voters gravitating toward a candidate looking toward the future, and not the past. That’s how a recent CBS poll assessed the priorities of likely GOP primary participants.

But it is equally possible that voters will rebel. A majority of voters think the indictment of Trump is bad for America, and many are appalled by the extremism of the Biden White House. Most of the nation is not on board with Biden’s gender program; they do not approve of very young children being inundated with inappropriate sexual information. They disagree with Biden’s assertion that the USA is systemically racist and policies that favor one racial group over another.

Abortion will loom large, once again, in the election; it is up to Republicans to call out Democrats’ extreme position — that abortion is acceptable up until and including the ninth month of gestation — which is not in line with the beliefs of the majority of Americans.

Biden’s extremism includes allowing more than 5 million people to enter the country illegally since he took office, abandoning long-standing immigration policy. His administration has also gone overboard in pursuing a climate agenda that includes stark intrusions into the lives of Americans. People like their gas stoves and enjoy driving gasoline-powered automobiles. Many understand that the White House’s dogged pursuit of renewable energy is reckless, as our power grid is not developing fast enough to handle the extra demand for electricity.

Signs of rebellion are popping up. Kids at a Massachusetts middle school, pushed by the administration to wear multi-colored clothes in celebration of pride month, demonstrated against the gay-themed festivities, incurring the wrath of local authorities. Target shoppers have made known their displeasure with the store’s embrace of transgenderism, as have Bud Light drinkers. Pushback against the dictatorial ESG policies approved and adopted by large corporations and the financial firms that back them has also begun.

Democrats always go too far. They are encouraged by the near-monolithic stance of most media outlets and driven by a party agenda that kowtows to the far left. Biden, remember, adopted Sen Bernie Sanders’s (I-Vt.) playbook in order to assure that progressive followers of Sanders would come out to vote in 2020. It worked, but the tail effects of adopting that woke and green agenda may come to haunt Democrats in 2024.

Voters are angry. They are angry about the weaponization of our Department of Justice, the seemingly unequal application of our laws and the extremism of the Biden White House. Ultimately, the greatest possible act of political defiance in our country’s history would be the reelection of Trump. Like Brexit in the U.K., it is conceivable that voters are so fed up that they will defy the elites, the media and Hollywood, and vote for Trump. It could happen.

Liz Peek is a former partner of major bracket Wall Street firm Wertheim & Company.