Can anything disrupt Trump’s glide path?

Much like the first Republican presidential debate in August, the likely winner of the second debate at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in Simi Valley, Calif., was former President Trump.

No candidate on stage at the debate, which was filled with personal criticisms, crosstalk and chaos, had a shining moment that showed GOP primary voters that they are a clear and compelling alternative to Trump. Further, it does not appear any of the candidates — a couple of whom may simply be running for the vice presidential nomination — will drop out just yet, meaning the Trump opposition remains split.

To be sure, there were more sustained criticisms of Trump this time than last month in Milwaukee. As the clock ticks toward the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary, the candidates appeared to have a newfound sense of urgency. 

The most vocal anti-Trump candidate, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, made sure to get his punches in after failing to do so at the first debate. Christie’s one-liner calling the former president “Donald Duck” may not have landed, but he effectively slammed Trump for not showing up to defend his record.

Despite his efforts, Christie is not the best mouthpiece for this anti-Trump message due to his abysmal numbers among the Republican primary electorate. A September Quinnipiac University poll found that just 13 percent of national GOP voters hold a favorable opinion of Christie.

Brandishing her foreign policy experience, former Ambassador to the United Nations and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley tweaked Trump for failing to contain China while in office. In a surprising turn of events, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis got involved too, asserting that Trump was “missing in action” and sharply criticizing his administration’s record of adding trillions to the national debt and “setting the stage” for inflation.

Despite the increased volume of attacks on Trump and his record, there is unlikely to be much, if any, movement for the front-runner’s polling numbers. After the last debate, Trump’s lead in the GOP primary went down slightly for a couple days and then quickly rebounded through September. FiveThirtyEight’s national polling average showed Trump’s support slipping from 54 percent to 49 percent in the days following the debate, then jumping back up to 55 percent. In fact, the most direct result of the sniping at Trump is that the former president has now suggested he will not choose anyone from the debate stage as his running mate.

It is no wonder Trump continues to skip the debates: He maintains his support while the less popular candidates trade support among themselves. His campaign has indicated he will not appear at the third debate in Miami Nov. 8.

In his absence, the other candidates continued to scrounge for votes where they can in the hopes of positioning themselves as Trump’s leading rival.

Haley took her aggressive attacks aimed toward businessman Vivek Ramaswamy to the next level, slamming him for his isolationist foreign policy views in a back-and-forth about the dangers of TikTok and China. She remarked, “This is infuriating. … Honestly, every time I hear you, I feel a little bit dumber for what you say.” 

Realizing the need to siphon votes from the other candidates, Haley also set her sights on DeSantis. Haley trails DeSantis by 8 points in FiveThirtyEight’s average and looked to drive a wedge between them on energy policy by calling him out for taking actions to limit fracking in Florida on his second day as governor.

Meanwhile, DeSantis is still attempting to reset his image with the American people. In an effort to halt his enduring slide in the polls, he made sure to highlight his military service in the wake of the 9/11 attacks. However, he spent a lot of the night on the defensive on topics such as energy, the high number of uninsured Floridians and his state’s problematic African American history standards.

South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott attacked DeSantis for the curriculum’s much publicized wording that suggests there were redeeming qualities of slavery. Scott also took aim at Haley, who first appointed him to the Senate when she was governor. He attacked her both for attempting to raise the gas tax in South Carolina as well as the cost of her refurbished curtains when she was U.N. ambassador.

Former Vice President Mike Pence, who occupies the same conservative evangelical lane in the GOP as Scott, failed to follow up on what was a spirited performance in the first debate. Whereas Pence criticized Trump for Jan. 6 and successfully channeled Reagan conservatism in Milwaukee, he was unable to do the same in his hero’s library.

Ramaswamy, the Trump-acolyte on stage, also had a difficult night. Recognizing he was off putting to a sizable portion of the electorate during the first debate, Ramaswamy attempted a reversal of sorts, “What do you see [when you look at me]? You see a young man who’s in a bit of a hurry. Maybe a little ambitious. Bit of a know-it-all.”

Despite the attempt to address his weaknesses, Ramaswamy still managed to take part in plenty of crosstalk. He also found the time to come out in opposition of the 14th Amendment, attack Ukraine and label Trump an “excellent president.”

Ultimately, the second Republican presidential debate amounted to a zero-sum game in a splintered field of Trump alternatives and likely only muddied the waters further. This lack of clarity in the race for second place and failure of each candidate to rise to the occasion only serves to smoothen Trump’s path to the Republican nomination next July.

Douglas E. Schoen is a political consultant who served as an adviser to President Clinton and to the 2020 presidential campaign of Michael Bloomberg. His new book is “The End of Democracy? Russia and China on the Rise and America in Retreat.”