In the race to be Speaker, Jim Jordan learns Trump tactics only work for Trump  

Intimidation, backstabbing and flouting the will of the majority are all tactics that Donald Trump has used expertly to dominate the Republican Party. Wannabe House Speaker Jim Jordan has tried the same gameplan, only to find out that he’s no Trump. It took three failed ballots for that reality to sink in for Jordan and his fuming, fumbling allies. 

It was not so long ago the GOP House caucus voted to elect Steve Scalise to be Speaker, defeating Jordan by a clear, but not overwhelming, margin of 113 to 99. At that point, regardless of the outcome on the House floor, Jordan should have been disqualified for the job. He lost, end of story. If Scalise could not get a majority before the full chamber, then Republicans should have ruled out Scalise and Jordan.

But Jordan and his henchmen (and women) had another plan. A sliver of caucus members announced they would not vote for Scalise, tanking his candidacy. While Jordan did publicly support Scalise, it did not sway the gaggle of holdouts. 

After over 30 years working in, observing and analyzing politics, you learn a thing or two about the public pronouncements of ambitious politicians — namely, don’t trust them, ever. I have no doubt that Jim Jordan’s public endorsement was a complete sham. In my opinion, he plotted with his allies to block a Scalise win, planning to then bulldoze any opposition on his way to the Speaker’s chair. 

It’s the Trump playbook: do whatever it takes to undermine your opponent and then play a game of chicken, forcing the other guy to duck. But Jordan is not Trump. Jordan does not have the charisma and feel for the room Trump has. Worse, Jordan does not have Trump’s power — which means his game of chicken simply won’t work. 

Enough Jordan opponents realized that caving to Jordan’s tactics would give a small minority a de facto veto over anything that happens in the Republican caucus. In short, letting Jordan win would neuter the majority and this small minority would only become more aggressive and demanding. The whole dynamic is less about ideology and more about game theory. 

The incompetent politics of Jim Jordan 

What is incredible is the utterly delusional behavior of Jordan and his supporters. Like Trump, they have only one strategy: louder and angrier. Unlike Trump, they don’t have the fear behind them. They overplayed their hand but are determined to keep overplaying it. Not to mention, they are complete hypocrites: now that their own strategy to sink Scalise is being used against Jordan, they can’t believe it and are furious. 

Looking to blame someone, Reps. Gaetz and Boebert? Look in a mirror. 

It’s not a minor point that the cabal that de-railed the last Speaker, Kevin McCarthy — just eight members — is much smaller than the group opposed to Jordan, originally 20 and now 25 (and Scalise didn’t even come close to winning enough support). Given the over-the-top rhetoric, attacks on cable television and death threats that were sparked by the first loss, the original holdouts have no option but to keep voting “no.” Anyone who flips to Jordan realizes that he/she will just empower those who are bullying them — they won’t have any independence whatsoever.  

By going all-in on intimidation, Team Jordan only ensured that he cannot win. It makes you wonder how people this stupid make it into Congress. 

But there is a new risk on the horizon. Given how dysfunctional the Republican Congress has become and how unrestrained Team Jordan has been against their opponents, it is possible that some Republican members may decide they have had enough.  

If Team Jordan gets too aggressive and vengeful after losing, all it would take would be just five Republicans to cut a deal with the Democrats on their way out the door to run the House; Jordan and the rest of the GOP caucus will be completely out in the cold. And, angry as they will be, they won’t be able to do a single thing about it. How do you punish a retiring member — especially one who has already been the subject of death threats? 

But politicians like Jim Jordan, Matt Gaetz and Lauren Boebert are just not that smart. They think they have all the answers. Their carefully plotted plans will always work and their opponents will just roll over and die. They never think that their own tactics will be turned against them. 

Team Jordan is no different from the leftists in academia who have spent years shouting down and cancelling their opponents, only to cry victim once the tables are turned on them. 

One way out 

The only way a party caucus in a legislature can operate effectively is as a unified bloc with a set of rules. Those rules have to be flexible enough to serve all the members of the caucus. Every member needs to believe that the collective will work to support their survival. When you lose a power struggle, you have to admit defeat; the winners need to be magnanimous, not punitive, as long as the losers agree to unite. 

Jordan and his allies don’t understand any of this. They’re acting in the exact opposite way to run an effective political bloc. What’s even worse is that the GOP advantage is just 221-212, meaning they have practically no margin for error. Not only does Jordan not understand politics, it appears he can’t even count. Ever since the first failed ballot, it was obvious only a nominee not named Jordan, Scalise or McCarthy can win.

In the end, the House GOP is getting what they deserve. They ran a vacuous, pathetic midterm election campaign that far underperformed historic norms. The party has no substantive policy agenda — at least, not one that resonates with voters. And now we are witnessing what may be the most egregious political malpractice Washington has ever seen. 

Keith Naughton, Ph.D., is co-founder of Silent Majority Strategies, a public and regulatory affairs consulting firm. Naughton is a former Pennsylvania political campaign consultant. Follow him on Twitter @KNaughton711.