Why Trump should pick a woman vice president

With the two top candidates unchanged from the last election, there is still one new variable to be added to this Biden-Trump rematch: Trump’s running mate.

Trump’s best pick for his vice presidential running mate would be a woman.  

Strategically — on substance, defense and offense — Trump’s biggest return will come from choosing the right woman as his running mate. Doing so would make the Republican ticket formidable against a Democrat ticket with limited ability to campaign and limited issues to campaign on. 

Presidential tickets used to be predicated on geographic balance. But 2024 will be decided by six states scattered across the country: Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Nevada and Wisconsin. In 2020 Biden won all six states by less than three percent of their popular vote. Within those states, differing demographics will determine their outcomes: in particular, women, suburban voters, independents and moderates.

A recent Fox News poll of a five-way matchup including Biden, Trump, Robert F. Kennedy, Cornel West and Jill Stein shows just how much these groups mean to Trump.

Trump leads Biden 41 percent to 35 percent in the overall vote with 21 percent going to the third-party candidates. This would obviously deliver Trump a sizeable victory in the electoral college — if those numbers hold. But that is a big “if,” because those are big numbers, and with the election almost a year away, third-party candidates historically tend to register more strongly in the polls than at the polls. Therefore, one in five voters could be up for grabs.

Trump leads in several important groups: men (44- 31 percent), whites (43-33 percent) and Hispanics (43-36 percent), but he is trailing 37-38 percent among women. Further, although Trump leads among independents (32 percent), moderates (34 percent) and suburban voters (37 percent), he does so with small pluralities. Among suburban women, he trails Biden 31-40 percent. 

A female vice presidential selection with legitimate governing experience would help him among all these groups — and with a conservative resume, she would do so without threatening his sizeable base of support (remember: Trump won 46.9 percent of 2020’s popular vote — an increase over his winning 2016 total).  

A woman vice presidential pick would also help Trump on two issues on which he will have to play defense: abortion and his own baggage in dealing with women.

Democrats are losing on the economy, foreign policy, immigration, domestic affairs and crime, so abortion is one of the few issues they have right now. They are playing it hard, as evinced by their recent victory on Ohio’s state ballot, their relative success in Virginia’s state legislative races and their rush to get abortion on as many state ballots in 2024 as they can. 

After the Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe v. Wade, in which Trump’s court picks played a decisive role, he can expect Democrats to come at him harder on this issue than they did in 2020. That Biden has flip-flopped on abortion will make no difference. This is politics and this is one of the few issues Democrats can successfully use. 

Choosing a woman as a running mate could help Trump turn the fight back toward Democrats by forcing them to answer where restrictions on abortion should be set. As no man could, Trump’s female running-mate would be able to assert the point that the unborn are the only people to whom Democrats refuse to assign rights. 

The other issue Trump will always have to be on the defensive on is himself. Behind his bravado is the political reality that he costs himself significant support in the groups already identified. A woman running mate will not only be able to make inroads with these groups, but she would be able to soften some of the public’s perception of him, thereby offering Trump a chance at reevaluation. Another male on the ticket will not.

A woman would also offer Trump unique opportunities to go on the offensive. Only a woman can truly exploit Vice President Kamala Harris’s glaring weaknesses. Harris is unpopular and her competence has been frequently questioned; as a result, the White House has largely hidden for three years, because she has proven ineffective when they have not. 

A heartbeat behind the nation’s oldest president in office and to seek office, she will loom large in this campaign. And in this tight campaign, Democrats will have no choice but to put her out before the public. A male Republican vice presidential pick will look like he is “mansplaining” if he probes any of Harris’s abundant weaknesses. A Republican vice presidential pick who is a woman will be able to probe them all. What’s more, she will not have to, as juxtaposition alone will suffice.

Trump holds the 2024 race’s biggest remaining variable that is under either campaign’s control.  In this contest, both campaign’s vice presidential picks matter even more — but especially Trump’s. Unlike Biden, who had to pick with an eye on not being overshadowed, Trump has no such worry.  An experienced conservative woman, capable of aggressively campaigning, could carry the fight to Democrats as no male pick could, and also carry important parts of the fight away from Trump.

J.T. Young was a professional staffer in the House and Senate from 1987-2000, served in the Department of Treasury and Office of Management and Budget from 2001-2004, and was director of government relations for a Fortune 20 company from 2004-2023.