What is the 2020 Democratic strategy without Russian collusion?

Democrats’ 2020 chances may depend on them resurrecting their Russian collusion charge. They will likely claim to find something in the Mueller report to hold against President Trump. Without this, they have no chance of overcoming Trump’s incumbency, economy and accomplishments with independents in 2020. Without independents, Democrats have no hope of beating Trump.

Since Trump’s 2016 victory, Democrats have done all they could to keep the charge of Russian collusion before America. It immediately served two purposes: absolving Democrats and delegitimizing Trump. Democrats could neither accept, nor accept the blame for, their stupendous 2016 upset. As a result, they could neither stand it, nor let it stand: They had to delegitimize it.

{mosads}Delegitimizing Trump did not just undercut him with the American public. It also legitimized persistent calls for investigation. Now with control of the House, Democrats finally have the ability to bring teeth to their bark. They were doing just that, when along came a summary of special counsel Robert Mueller’s report. The summary, written by Attorney General William Barr, states although Russia interfered in the 2016 election, the president and his campaign were not involved.  

For many Americans, the summary of the Mueller report put the matter to rest. Its verdict resided in a headline. Having lost that headline, Democrats must endeavor to rewrite the story, and then hope America will be willing to read the sequel.

Democrats are too invested in the Russian charge. It is the ultimate foundation of their entire investigation strategy — a strategy they promised their base to pursue. To that base, “never mind” is not acceptable. To accept it also would mean admitting they were wrong.

However, the most important reason Democrats cannot accept the Mueller report summary as it now stands is because of what happens to Trump in the absence of collusion charges.

Unless something dramatic changes, Trump will head into November 2020 with the advantages of incumbency, economy and accomplishments. Elected incumbents seeking presidential reelection do not lose in America without a bad economy. Since 1916, only three (Hoover, Carter and Bush I) have lost; all three had negative annual real GDP growth within a year of seeking reelection. Trump currently enjoys a strong economy.

Aside from the economy, Trump can boast trade deals — a renegotiated NAFTA and one in the works with China — to highlight. He also claims the defeat of ISIS. For his base, he delivered a tax cut, two Supreme Court justices and a determined effort to secure the Mexican border.

Democrats desperately need something to mute this. Unable to reduce the economy and accomplishments, they must attack his incumbency through his legitimacy. Doing so depends on resurrecting their initial charge of Russian collusion.

Russian collusion is the capstone that holds all the other accusations and investigations in place. Without it, they collapse into a politically motivated heap. With it, Democrats can at least hope their other charges form an arch of further evidence that Trump’s presidency is not legitimate — an overarching sense that he is not presidential, and that this, in turn, discredits his accomplishments.

The target audience for this are the independent voters who will decide 2020, just as they decided 2016. Democrats likely see the Mueller report is their only chance to move independents.

Without the Russian collusion charge, Democrats have too much to overcome next year. That their own nominee is likely to be well to the left of America’s mainstream makes it harder still. Democrats have too much at stake, too little favoring them, and too little time for a second chance. They cannot let today’s Mueller report stand, or they will surely fall next year.

J.T. Young served under President George W. Bush as the director of communications in the Office of Management and Budget and as deputy assistant secretary in legislative affairs for tax and budget at the Treasury Department. He served as a congressional staffer from 1987-2000.