Dems need the urban youth vote to win in 2024, but do they know how to get it? 

One of us is Gen X and one of us is Gen Z, but we agree about the stakes of this election. If Donald Trump wins in 2024, he will appoint cronies to control our national military and law enforcement, and he will use that power to stay in office until he dies. Our constitutional democracy has roughly even odds of surviving into next year.   

This is not hyperbole, it’s personal. In Gen X, we grew up with family stories of fleeing the horrors of World War II or fighting Jim Crow. In Gen Z, we didn’t just hear about the mobs, we witnessed them: from Charlottesville in 2017 to the Jan. 6 insurrection We have seen and studied how violent nationalist movements can attack the rule of law and open the door to atrocities.  

Today’s global surge in violent nationalism follows historical patterns of urbanization. As cities attract outsized wealth, talent and influence, rural communities feel disrespected and left behind. A 2019 study from the center-right think tank Niskanen Center explains how, in rural America, this led to “a zero-sum, ethnocentric mindset receptive to scapegoating populist rhetoric about the threat of ‘un-American’ immigrants, minorities, and liberal elites.” Cynical fabulists have rallied these rural grievances into a monoculture that flies the Confederate flag from rural Oregon to rural Maine.  

In this context, Trump fits the historical mold. He promises to send federal troops into American cities, overruling their elected leaders so he can root out the “vermin.” He promises to send troops to our border and into neighboring countries, in part to block followers of Islam and those born in Mexico or Haiti from entering the country and “poisoning our blood.” He is also the classic American thug, in the tradition of Indiana KKK Grand Wizard D.C. Stephenson: a conman, grifter, criminal and violent sexual predator who nonetheless uses his charisma to build a cult-like following.   

If history shows us the problem, it also offers the solution: an urban youth movement.  

When city youth rise up, they can win, as with the civil rights movements against Jim Crow, or the “Velvet” and “Color” revolutions in formerly communist countries. For instance, when Yugoslavian President Slobodan Milošević tried to keep power after losing the 2000 election, the student group Otpor! rallied the divided opposition and forced him from power.  

Today in America, younger urban voters overwhelmingly reject the rural fascism that has taken over the Republican Party. Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Joe Biden in 2020 were not rock stars among city kids, but voters under 45 in the most dense census tracts voted for Democrats by 50-60 points in both 2016 and 2020, according to a voter file analysis by data firm Catalist.   

In 2024, the newest cohort of urban voters will be Gen Z, who will be ages 18-27. The size of this cohort makes it significant; in both 2016 and 2020, the White House result would have changed hands if fewer than 100,000 voters — 0.01 percent of the total electorate — flipped their major-party vote decision. In the seven closest 2024 states, about 2 million Gen Z and 3 million millennial eligible voters live in the most dense urban areas. This is according to cohort estimates derived from 2020 census data; the data firm Catalist; the nonpartisan Tisch College of Civic Life at Tufts; and other groups.

City kids may not be excited about President Biden, but they weren’t excited last time or in 2016. If they vote, they will vote against Trump and what he means not just for democracy but for gun violence, reproductive freedom and the climate. Gen Z will have tremendous latent power if they simply show up and vote.  

Unfortunately, that’s the rub. Young urban Americans tend not to vote — their turnout rates are 20-30 points lower than for the rest of the electorate. Young people have the power to stop fascism, but they don’t always use it.  

This low turnout isn’t because Gen Z is disengaged or doesn’t understand; it’s because political messaging used to “engage” them doesn’t resonate. “Nothing about us, without us” has become a rallying cry for this generation, emphasizing a demand for active involvement in crafting political movements and advertising campaigns that aim to get this cohort “engaged.”  

Young people are swift to recognize and reject inauthentic campaigns and stale cultural references (“Pokemon-go to the polls”) created by older consultants in some far-away boardroom. It’s no surprise that Gen Z focused campaigns that haven’t robustly included youth perspectives have fallen flat. Any sense that a campaign is inauthentically leveraging youth would be a death sentence — for engagement, for Democrats and for democracy.  

If we want to stop Trump, we’ll need to listen and empower urban youth with approaches that authentically bring city kids into the conversation. Patriots opposed to Trumpism need to actively engage young people to co-create the strategies that will invite their peers to join one another at the polls. The only way to understand the culture, content and messages that will work is to go to the source.  

Gen Z is active today. Consider Ulster County’s viral “I Voted” sticker —  designed by Gen Z, it was quick to catch virality and drive people to vote, making people feel like they were a part of something social, something bigger. Gen Z brings ideas and energy; Gen X can bring operational and financial support. If we work intergenerationally, we can supercharge efforts to engage young voters and protect democracy. 

This strategy represents a departure from the status quo. We need rural and suburban voters, of course, as well as older urban voters, but they are not enough. Obama-era tactics are not where the race will be won.  

Winning will require unprecedented investment in urban areas and a commitment to building genuine relationships with young people who can lend their unique perspectives on the ground and in digital campaigns. When successful, it will ignite one of the most powerful political voices this country has ever seen: the voice of Gen Z.  

Dmitri Mehlhorn is a political strategist and the head of Investing in US, where he invests in organizations that strengthen democracy.  

Thanasi Dilos is the co-founder and chief growth officer of Civics Unplugged, an intergenerationally-led organization that equips its fellows with the training, funding and community they need to become civic innovators.