With the two major parties set to nominate the two oldest presidential candidates in American history, and with both Biden and former Trump facing questions about their mental acuity, the media is focused on the question of how old is too old for a leader. Polls and pundits may say this is a big issue for voters, but recent history tells a different story.
As the rules changed to take away from party leaders the power to choose nominees, voters have shown a distinct interest in older candidates. If both Biden and Trump are nominated, the entire top 10 list of oldest major-party nominees for president in American history (comprising seven individuals) will be filled with candidates picked since 1980.
Since 1976, the two parties have combined to nominate nine presential candidates who are 60 years or older, five of whom were 70 or older. In the period before 1976, the oldest nominee in American history, William Henry Harrison, was 67 when the election took place (and he died after a month in office). From 1880-1976, there were only four candidates over 60: Benjamin Harrison, Franklin D. Roosevelt (for his third and fourth term), Harry Truman and Dwight Eisenhower.
A look at presidential elections indicates that voters have no preference between the older and the younger candidate. In the 16 presidential elections since 1960, there is an 8-8 split in choosing the older or younger candidate (in the first half of the 20th century, voters overwhelmingly favored the older candidate).
And, as a comparison in the other direction, only four candidates since 1960 have been in their 40s for their presidential run (John F. Kennedy, Richard Nixon, Bill Clinton and Barack Obama).
This isn’t a gerontocracy being foisted upon the voters — it’s actually the opposite. The march to the elderly has taken place since the adoption of the modern primary and caucus system, when average voters gained the power to select candidates. Unlike the old convention system, where the party leaders ruled and chose younger candidates, the primary system has increasingly made voters the ones who select nominees. They seem to be fine with older ones.
This shouldn’t be such a surprise, as voters are increasingly choosing older members of Congress. NBC News noted that the current Congress is composed of the second-oldest Senate and third-oldest House in U.S. history, and that the age of senators and representatives has increased since 1980 by 12 and nine years, respectively.
Perhaps this willingness to elect older leaders is because the average age of Americans has increased by nine years since 1980. Not only are the voters older, but they are also regularly interacting with older people, including their parents, who are still active and employed.
Popular culture shows the same tolerance for older stars. We now regularly see rockstars and celebrities in their 80s; octogenarian Mick Jagger, famed for not wanting to sing “Satisfaction” when he was 45, just released a new album, and Bob Dylan, who told a previous generation that the old road is rapidly aging, is still on his never-ending world tour. This trend may give voters more confidence in older people in general.
In the 2024 presidential election, age is a factor that can clearly cut both ways. While Biden is currently under fire, Trump himself has faced numerous questions over his own mental state and dubious memories. If Trump wins, he himself would become the oldest president ever elected.
The push to get Biden to drop out over his age isn’t going to stop, nor will the Republican attacks on him. A similar attack against Trump would be unlikely to succeed. But this line of attack may not be as potent as Democrats fear. After all, it is the voters themselves who have proven to want the older candidates.
Joshua Spivak is a senior fellow at the Hugh L. Carey Institute for Government Reform at Wagner College and the author of “Recall Elections: From Alexander Hamilton to Gavin Newsom.”