Trump’s undeniable battleground advantage over Biden continues

In last Tuesday’s Georgia primary, Trump once again out-performed Biden in a key battleground state. Unlike Michigan, where Trump was still facing a challenge for the nomination, this time both nominees were on equal, unopposed terrain. And Trump’s lack of an opponent did not diminish his substantial advantage over Biden in votes cast.

It is becoming increasingly difficult not to see the large discrepancy in votes cast in primaries as significant for November. 

In Georgia, both Biden and Trump secured enough delegates to give each his respective party’s nomination. There the similarities end. Biden won approximately 275,000 votes and Trump won 497,000. Overall, Democratic candidates received approximately 289,000 votes and Republicans received 587,000. 

Georgia’s 2024 primary outcome is a stark reversal of 2020. Then, Trump barely edged Biden in total primary votes: 947,352 to 922,177, while Democrats received almost 140,000 more votes overall. Then, the Democratic field was still crowded — though Biden won handily — whereas Trump, as the incumbent, had the Republican field to himself. 

The absence of challengers explains large drop-offs in 2024 primary votes on both sides. Trump’s vote total fell by 451,000, Biden’s by 647,000. Overall, Republican votes were 361,000 less in 2024, while Democrat votes were 798,000 less. 

The reason for the focus on Georgia is that it was one of six battleground states — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — that decided the Electoral College for Biden in 2020. Despite Biden winning the overall popular vote 51.3 percent to 46.9 percent, his electoral vote victory was just 306 to 232, hinging on the narrow outcomes in each of those states. Georgia accounted for 16 of those electoral votes, going for Biden by less than 12,000. 

Georgia is the second of these six battleground states to hold primaries that give an insightful view of votes cast. Although Nevada voted in February, Trump did not appear on the primary ballot and Nikki Haley finished second to “none of these candidates.”

The earlier meaningful primary contest occurred in Michigan, where Trump won roughly 136,000 more votes than Biden. This reversed Biden’s 200,000 vote advantage in the 2020 primaries. Overall, Democrats won roughly 900,000 more votes in the 2020 primaries than Republicans did. In 2024, Republicans won almost 350,000 more votes than Democrats in Michigan’s primary contests.

In November 2020, Biden beat Trump by just over 150,000 votes to secure Michigan’s 16 electoral votes.

Democrats could argue that Michigan’s dramatic 2024 primary reversal occurred because Trump was still in a contested primary — Nikki Haley’s challenge drew her supporters (which increased the overall Republican vote total) and Trump’s (which increased his and the overall Republican total) — while Biden was effectively unchallenged (except by the protest “uncommitted” vote movement). 

But Georgia’s outcome makes Democrats’ Michigan argument look like they are whistling past the graveyard. In Georgia, Haley was no longer in the race, even if she was still on the ballot, so both Trump and Biden were running uncontested. 

While Haley won more primary votes against Trump more than Biden’s had won against him, Trump still won over 220,000 more votes than Biden — almost 10 times more than his 2020 primary margin — and Trump, even without any other Republican primary votes being included, still handily beat all the Democratic candidates combined.

What is this now twice-manifested discrepancy telling us? Is it indicative of November outcomes? We see wide differences between primary voting and general election voting totals. Is it indicative of the two parties’ turnout operations? It is unlikely that either party put much effort into these essentially meaningless contests. More likely, it is indicative of voter motivation, although even this is not definitive. 

What cannot be argued is that the significant disparity in primary results is unique. Polls in both Michigan and Georgia show Trump with sizable leads.  One week after Georgia’s primary, the RealClearPolitics average polling in both states shows Trump leading in Michigan by 3.5 percentage points and in Georgia by 5.7 percentage points. 

How significant these primary votes and polls in Georgia and Michigan is debatable, and Democrats no doubt will debate it. How significant Georgia and Michigan are in November is not debatable. Together, these will equal 31 electoral votes (Michigan lost a seat in reapportionment). Trump, should he win all the states that he did in 2020, only needs to flip 35 electoral votes (three seats went to Trump states in reapportionment) to win the presidency. 

Something is clearly happening in these primaries. It is hard to argue that in elections votes do not matter. Right now, Trump is getting them; Biden is not.  He is also getting them in the states that will decide the 2024 outcome. What we are seeing in the primary vote totals is also being confirmed in the polls.  

However, what voters say in polls may be predictive; what they do at polls is determinative. Less than eight months ahead of the election, Trump’s are showing up where they matter most. Biden’s are not.

J.T. Young was a professional staffer in the House and Senate from 1987-2000, served in the Department of Treasury and Office of Management and Budget from 2001-2004, and was director of government relations for a Fortune 20 company from 2004-2023.