Former President Donald Trump may enjoy a slight lead in early polling against President Biden, but the incumbent has a significant lead in another race, which is perhaps just as important this far out from November.
Indeed, Biden’s cash advantage over Trump — currently sitting at roughly $40 million — may prove decisive in a race largely hinging on turnout and whichever campaign can effectively reach and mobilize voters.
Last week, both campaigns filed financial reports with the Federal Election Commission, and the difference is stark: Biden and associated PACs took in $53 million in February, giving the president a total war chest of $155 million. In total, the Biden campaign has said it expects to raise and spend $2 billion.
On top of that, outside groups have pledged more than $1 billion to support Biden’s reelection bid.
For his part, Trump’s campaign recently told Fox News that the campaign and supportive PACs have slightly more than $40 million cash on hand, and according to the New York Times, the former president is having difficulties raising money, despite hosting weekly dinners with big donors at his Mar-a-Lago estate.
It is easy to understand why donors are hesitant to give to the candidate or his committees. The bulk of Trump’s spending is not going to the campaign but to his legal fees. In 2023, Trump’s PACs spent nearly $50 million defending the former president in his four criminal indictments and a slew of civil trials.
This February alone, the Save America PAC spent almost $6 million on legal fees, leaving the PAC with just $4 million in cash, per FEC filings. And these costs are only expected to grow, as Trump’s cases approach their trial dates.
Trump’s financial woes extend off the campaign trail as well. He was unable to secure a bond for the $464 million judgment against him in New York City after being found guilty of inflating his assets for decades, and the state’s attorney general has indicated she may seize some of Trump’s assets this week.
Of course, with two well-known candidates and the power of social media — not to mention Trump’s prolific ability to get free media coverage — money alone will not win the election for either side. However, it is undeniably an advantage for Biden and Democrats.
Moreover, Trump has been in this position before and won. In 2016, he raised $340 million, dwarfed by Hillary Clinton’s nearly $600 million haul, and in that election’s last few weeks Trump was outspent by Clinton $131 million to $94 million.
Taking a page from 2016, Trump allies insist that money will not matter this time around either. As Tommy Hicks Jr., a former Republican National Committee co-chair recently said, “Hillary Clinton way out-raised President Trump but he connected with the American people and that was the difference right there.”
While it remains to be seen whether Trump, now a known commodity, will connect with voters the same way he did as a first-time candidate in 2016, in an election that figures to be incredibly close, Biden’s cash advantage gives the president a leg-up in certain key areas, primarily advertising, organizing and get-out-the-vote efforts.
To that end, Trump’s primary super PAC recently spent $380,000 on ad efforts targeting Black voters in three states, relative pennies compared to the $30 million ad blitz over six weeks announced by the Biden campaign.
Further, Biden’s deep pockets mean the president can open many more campaign offices in the key swing states, ensuring a robust grassroots outreach and get-out-the-vote operation throughout the states that will decide the contest.
In that same vein, Trump’s financial limitations mean he will struggle to attack third-party candidates such as Robert F. Kennedy Jr, and limit his ability to reach independents in individual states with more expensive targeted ads, problems Biden won’t face, given his virtually unlimited resources.
Ultimately, money may not decide presidential races the way it once did, especially with two candidates the American public is already deeply familiar with, and Trump’s average lead in battleground states like Georgia (Trump +5) Michigan (Trump +4) and Wisconsin (Trump +1), makes clear that Biden has an uphill climb.
However, in a race that figures to come down to a few thousand votes in just a handful of states, it would be a mistake to overlook the significance of Biden’s dominant financial position vis-à-vis his opponent. If the Biden campaign can effectively capitalize on that, this race may be much closer than many people think.
Douglas E. Schoen is a political consultant who served as an advisor to President Clinton and the 2020 presidential campaign of Michael Bloomberg. His new book is “The End of Democracy? Russia and China on the Rise and America in Retreat.”