This year’s State of the Union address was followed by an aggressive pro-Biden PR campaign, an avalanche of spin and opinion about its brilliance and how it put Donald Trump and the Republicans on the back foot. Polling over the next few weeks showed a tightening race, with a few polls putting President Biden ahead.
But that all looks like a mirage. Despite attempts to paint it otherwise, Biden is losing to Trump. He is behind (if slightly) in the national polls and continues to lag in enough state polls to hand the election to Trump. And it doesn’t look like the Democrats have a real plan to get out of their polling mess.
Biden’s got that sinking feeling
For President Biden and the Democrats, the numbers are ugly. Biden continues to trail Trump in favorability. His RealClearPolitics average is stuck around minus 15 points, 4 points worse than Trump. The Right Track/Wrong Direction deficit is nearly 40 points. Democrats are stuck “celebrating” an approval percentage of 43 percent.
While the national ballot test is close, Biden is lagging in battleground states. He continues his losing streaks in Georgia, Arizona, Nevada and Michigan, not having a positive margin since last year. While Biden narrowed the margin in several states in the wake of the State of the Union address, those numbers are looking like either a temporary bump or just a margin of error wobble.
Recent polls put Trump ahead by 6 points in Michigan, 6 points in Arizona and 6 points in Georgia, all above the RCP average. As importantly, Biden keeps losing. Although the RCP averages have dropped from a high in December, they are still negative for the incumbent president. The consistency must be concerning, as that indicates more voters settled in their choice.
Within the electorate, Biden is seeing dangerous erosion in the traditional Democratic coalition. Predictions of Trump gaining 25 percent of the Black vote or winning Hispanics seem rather pie-in-the-sky, but the erosion of these key voting blocs is real. The YouGov weekly benchmark polls have put Trump at roughly 13 percent with Black voters, 1 point better than the 2020 exit polls. But that’s not the whole story. The April 9 benchmark has Biden at only 62 percent with 25 percent undecided. Trump just gets one-tenth of undecideds, he passes 15 percent – a significant chunk of votes Biden needs.
It’s a similar story with Hispanics. Trump scored 32 percent, according to the 2020 exits. Trump is at that number in the last two YouGov polls. But Biden, who got 65 percent in 2020, cannot break 50 percent. Hispanics dislike Trump more than they dislike Biden, but Biden’s advantage is just 6 points. Black voters are one of the few demographics positive on Biden, but his disapprove is still 34 percent.
Inflation and immigration are costing Biden
Biden’s foundering in the inflation and immigration numbers — especially inflation. Inflation has been the runaway No. 1 concern of voters for over a year. With 21 percent citing inflation as their top issue and 77 percent calling it “very important,” no other issue comes close.
Worse for Biden, his terrible approvals are worse on inflation. Biden has a 31 percent approve vs. 62 percent disapprove against a 40 percent approve vs. 58 percent disapprove in the latest YouGov poll. With Hispanics, he is at 60 percent disapprove and is even net negative with Black voters. Independents only give Biden a 20 percent approval (68 percent disapprove).
The Democrats’ response is the standard excess profits / greedflation blame-shifting and telling the public they are wrong. Neither of these tactics is a long-term solution. Fulminating about corporate greed doesn’t bring down the price of gas and complaining that the public’s opinion is stupid is about the worst tactic in politics.
There is little evidence Team Biden has any real plan. It seems they expected inflation would cool over time and finger-pointing could tide them over. But that’s not the case. Inflation remains above the Fed target rate, delaying any interest rate relief. Even worse, the shock from 2022 to 2023 remains baked in current prices. Biden needs prices to stop rising now, as even a moderated inflation rate pressures households and keeps the effect of the earlier shock alive.
All that makes the public more than justified in its concern about inflation. Taxing the rich and taking potshots at corporate America may give the Biden campaign a brief sugar-rush, but it does nothing to help middle-class and working-class voters make ends meet. Options like cutting government spending, pulling back on new regulations (which the consumer ends up paying for) or encouraging private-sector competition are simply off the table. These ideas are inconceivable to the progressive left.
Immigration is not quite the drag inflation is, but it is still a problem. As with inflation, Biden’s approval is worse on this issue than his overall numbers, including with Hispanics and Black voters. Immigration could be the counterbalance to abortion — the one issue where Democrats are with majority opinion — and it does promote turnout. But immigration also pushes turnout – for Republicans.
Additionally, independents are more concerned about immigration (48 percent cite the issue as very serious) than abortion (41 percent), as are Hispanics (52 percent vs. 44 percent). Independents and Hispanics also cite immigration higher as their top issue.
As with inflation, Biden appears to have no plan. The Democratic base ranks immigration just about last and tighter border controls combined with tougher arrest and deportation are guaranteed to provoke howls of protest from the progressive left. Biden’s non-policy on inflation and immigration leave him rudderless on the top two issues for the public.
Banking on a Trump collapse
Team Biden is seeking a re-run of 2020 – essentially a campaign as “not Trump.” But when you’re president, you own all the problems (and since all presidents take credit for anything they can all the time, that’s a fair bargain). Biden is facing a steady erosion since 2012 in Black and Hispanic voter support for Democrats, falling from 93 percent and 71 percent down to 87 percent and 65 percent in 2020 — and still falling.
Frozen by his party’s own fractious politics, Biden has no plan on inflation, no plan on immigration and is flailing and failing in the Israel-Hamas conflict. “Hang on and hope for the best” does not look too good as a strategy. But Trump is still the Democrats’ best asset, and he could still bail them out.
The 2024 presidential election should not be close. Given the current polling and issue environment, Trump and the Republicans should be headed for a resounding win, with both the presidency and Congress under their control. If the GOP loses in the fall, it will be the greatest fumble in American electoral history.
Keith Naughton, Ph.D., is co-founder of Silent Majority Strategies, a public and regulatory affairs consulting firm. Naughton is a former Pennsylvania political campaign consultant. Follow him on Twitter @KNaughton711.