Even Biden’s most reliable voters can’t get past the economy

President Biden’s reelection chances appear to have taken another hit this past week, as new polling showed his approval rating at its lowest levels in almost two years, amid growing economic pessimism and declining support among key constituencies.  

Indeed, the most recent Reuters-Ipsos tracking poll shows that just 36 percent now approve of Biden’s job performance, tying the lowest level of his presidency so far. 

Worse, critical parts of the Democratic base are turning away from Biden, just as the campaign heads into its critical summer months. Per Emerson polling, Biden’s approval is dismally low among voters under 30 years old (26 percent), Black voters (55 percent) and Hispanic voters (33 percent). 

Not only are those voters unhappy with Biden, but they are also actually becoming more receptive to Donald Trump. The same Emerson poll shows that among voters in their 30s, Trump is leading by 4 points (45 percent to 41 percent), a reversal from 2020, when Biden carried this group.  

And while majorities of Black and Hispanic voters are still behind Biden, support for the incumbent is significantly weaker than in 2020 — particularly among Hispanics, with whom Biden leads by only 12 points (49 percent to 37 percent). 

Among Black voters, CNN polling showed Trump at 22 percent, whereas support for Biden has declined from 81 percent in 2020 to 69 percent — still a majority, but a significant decline. 

To that end, the erosion in Biden’s support among Blacks and Hispanics is a major factor in Trump’s lead in key swing states such as Nevada and Arizona, which, along with four other swing states was reported by Cook Report Swing State polling. 

Why are these traditionally solid Democratic groups turning against Biden? Very simply, it’s the economy.

As the Reuters-Ipsos poll suggests, the same issues that have plagued Biden virtually his entire term — inflation and poor economic sentiment — continue to be a thorn in his side. 

It is likely no coincidence that the last time Biden’s approval rating was this low — in July 2022 — inflation had just hit its highest level in more than four decades.  

As such, according to the Reuters poll (40 percent to 30 percent), Americans prefer Trump’s economic policies to Biden’s by a 10 point margin. 

In that same vein, a separate Guardian-Harris poll underscores the extent to which Americans hold Biden responsible for inflation, and how his inability to stop surging prices is affecting perceptions of virtually the entire economy. 

Despite this being the longest period of unemployment below 4 percent since the Vietnam War, half (49 percent) of Americans believe unemployment is actually at a 50-year high. 

Interestingly, inflation is even undermining Americans’ perceptions of more visible indicators of economic health, such as the stock market. Roughly one-half (49 percent) of Americans say that the S&P 500 index is negative for the year. In reality, it was up nearly 24 percent in 2023 and is up more than 10 percent so far for 2024. 

Perhaps most alarming for the Biden campaign, nearly 6 in 10 (56 percent) believe the U.S. is in a recession, and a similar majority (58 percent) place the blame for the negative state of the economy on “mismanagement from the Biden administration.”  

While partisanship plays a role in how Americans view the economy, the Guardian-Harris poll reveals that economic pessimism largely cuts across party lines. Three-quarters of independents (74 percent) and 61 percent of Democrats think inflation is increasing, and 39 percent of Democrats actually say Biden is making the economy worse. 

Similarly, 53 percent, including 49 percent of Democrats, also believe the U.S. is in a recession.  

And while the economy is the most important issue, Biden has largely failed to convince voters of his successes in other areas as well. On immigration, voters preferred Trump’s approach by a 17 point margin (42 percent to 25 percent), according to the Reuters poll. And on managing foreign conflicts and national security, Trump was the top choice, 36 percent to 29 percent. 

Taken together, these are truly damning findings for the Biden administration, underscoring the president’s vulnerability on the issue voters consistently rank as the most influential in deciding for whom to vote.  

Importantly, as these surveys make clear, whether due to inflation or poor messaging by the administration, voters are increasingly convinced that the economy is in bad shape and getting worse. And even traditionally solid Democratic voters are holding Biden responsible. 

That said, despite Biden’s dismal ratings and the pervasive economic pessimism, it would be a mistake to say Trump has the election sewn up.

The former president is highly divisive, is dealing with four criminal trials, and a sizable bloc of GOP voters are still backing Nikki Haley in primaries, despite her having dropped out of the race.  

However, it cannot be understated how important the economy is at election time. Three years of runaway inflation has continued to sap America’s purchasing power, and although inflation is slowing, prices are already 20 percent higher than they were before Biden took office.  

If these trends continue, Trump may very well return to the White House. 

Douglas E. Schoen is a political consultant and the founder and partner at Schoen Cooperman Research. He served as an adviser to President Clinton and the 2020 presidential campaign of Michael Bloomberg. His new book is “The End of Democracy? Russia and China on the Rise and America in Retreat.” Saul Mangel is a senior strategist at Schoen Cooperman Research.