As the nation’s capital broiled in the summer heat, the president found himself increasingly isolated in the Oval Office.
During his decades in politics, he had charted a career from the Senate to the vice presidency, though after two terms in the nation’s second-highest office, most believed his political career to be over. Even so, he shocked the political establishment by winning the presidency, largely by promising to return a sense of calm following a time of crisis and public protest.
Suddenly, however, the president found himself fending off calls from members of his own party to step aside, as the media monitored his every word for signs of what he may be thinking.
Yes, 50 years ago this month, Richard Nixon faced a remarkably difficult choice. (Who did you think I was talking about?)
Overall, the similarities between where Nixon found himself in July 1974 and where President Biden finds himself today seemingly end there. While Watergate dominated the news for more than two years, the post-debate attention to Biden’s health is only a few weeks old. And whereas Nixon’s presidency had roughly two and a half years remaining but for what transpired, Biden is in the midst of a reelection campaign. Finally, while Watergate was the result of the Nixon administration’s poor judgement, Biden’s problems are, mainly, the fault of Father Time.
However, there is a common denominator between what Biden faces when it comes to remaining on the ballot and what Nixon faced half a century ago: The fact that his political party will decide his fate.
Like Nixon, Biden’s relationship with the opposition party can seemingly grow no worse. But unlike Nixon, who faced the threat of impeachment from congressional Democrats, there is nothing Republicans can do to drive Biden from office, aside from winning in November. Therefore, Biden’s focus remains on maintaining his intraparty support.
This brings us to the letter released by Biden this week.
After 11 days of employing a defensive strategy, Biden and his team shifted to placing the onus on Democrats who are debating whether to join the slow growing chorus of party members calling for Biden to step aside. Biden challenged any prospective nominees to publicly declare their candidacy, aiming to prevent any type of shadow campaign that might allow a contender for the nomination to increase his or her profile in the event that Biden does withdraw. Although not without risk, this change in strategy was necessary, as more and more Democrats began to speak openly about the possibility of a change at the top of the ticket.
This new strategy will also require more finesse than an ordinary political battle. While we have grown accustomed to cross-party accusations and name-calling, Biden is now placed in the precarious position of challenging the same people who will decide his fate. Thus, instead of asking supporters to join together to fight the political opposition, he must now ask Democrats to band together and potentially oppose their fellow party members. Biden must also be careful not to be perceived as placing his own best interests over those of the party, which is a point highlighted by Democrats who have called for the president to step aside.
Returning to Nixon and Watergate, the last straw came on Aug. 7, 1974, when Republican Sens. Hugh Scott and Barry Goldwater, joined by House GOP leader John Rhodes, called on Nixon at the White House. At that fateful meeting, the three Republicans informed Nixon that his congressional support had nearly completely eroded, and thus his impeachment in the House and conviction in the Senate were all but assured. The next day, Nixon announced his resignation.
Although much remains to be seen, there are two most likely outcomes for Biden.
One is that a significant number of Democrats, made up of elected officials, candidates and party members, rally behind his challenge and support him in the days and weeks ahead. In this scenario, Biden and Kamala Harris are renominated, and how much of a role voter concern over Biden’s health plays in the election will not be known until November.
The other possibility is the Nixon outcome. In this scenario, Democratic leaders such as Sen. Chuck Schumer, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and former Speaker Nancy Pelosi would likely visit Biden for a very uncomfortable meeting. At that time, they would inform him that support within the Democratic Party has eroded significantly, and thus they feel the only decision is for Biden to step aside. Although they would lack the power to force him into such a decision, the prospect of defying both party leadership and rank-and-file Democrats is simply untenable.
In his 1974 State of the Union address, Nixon declared to both Congress and the American people that one year of Watergate was enough, and that it was time to move on to other important issues. Despite this, the investigation rolled on, and his presidency ended seven months later. Now, Biden has declared that 11 days of speculation over his ability to serve as president is enough. And while everyone from voters to world leaders will form their own opinions, it is the opinions of Democratic Party members that should concern Biden the most.
Jim Ronan is an adjunct professor of political science at Villanova University and the author of “Living Dangerously: The Uncertainties of Presidential Disability and Succession.”