It’s going to be one of the most important speeches Donald Trump has ever made.
Trump’s acceptance speech at the Republican convention next week will be seen by tens of millions, or more. It’s the former president’s chance to set the stage for his election. If he hits a home run, he could stretch his lead to a near-insurmountable level. If he blows it, he could lose everything — the presidency, his money and his freedom.
With the stakes higher than ever, can Trump deliver? He will need to reject his worst instincts and ditch his rally persona in favor of a direct, disciplined speech. Given his opponent’s problems, that Trump cannot get to 50 percent in the national or battleground state polls should be ringing alarm bells for his campaign.
Trump will formally challenge Biden to at least two more debates (if Biden is still in the race). That’s the easiest call for Team Trump. Biden cannot duck them, and there is no way he can keep it together for the duration of both.
The most important thing for Trump’s campaign to keep in mind is that the presumptive GOP nominee’s real audience is quite small. The vast majority of Republicans are in his camp and the vast majority of Democrats detest him. Trump is really talking to undecided voters and reluctant voters. The reluctant voters are those who dislike both candidates but whose antipathy is driving them to whomever they consider to be the lesser of two evils. Without those soft voters, Trump can’t win (nor can Biden and Kamala Harris).
Both Trump and Biden are running ahead of their approval numbers. Trump’s RealClearPolitics approval is just 42 percent, with his ballot test 5 points above. But Trump cannot win with just his approval percentage; the most recent YouGov benchmark shows how soft that critical marginal support is. While his overall approval is at 41 percent, it’s only at 35 percent with Independents. With Hispanics, Trump is at minus-17 points. With women, he is at minus-21.
Trump has closed the “honesty gap” with Biden, but that’s hardly been through his own doing. He’s still viewed as honest by just 31 percent of voters against 55 percent who view him as dishonest. He has a deficit with Hispanics of 21 points and 29 points with women. Among independents, Trump is down 36 points. That’s Bill Clinton territory.
It is clear that key blocs of voters still recoil at Trump, his rhetoric and the chaos that surrounds him.
Did Trump learn anything from last month’s debate? The less he talked, the better he did. When he started fulminating, crying about the 2020 election and held forth with his patented Trumpian hyperbole, he lost ground. In the face of Biden’s colossal meltdown, majorities still disapproved of Trump’s performance.
That means Trump cannot treat his convention speech like one of his rallies. He cannot play to the crowd; he must drop his most incendiary rhetoric and attacks that work against Biden but could boomerang if Harris becomes the nominee.
That means no “stolen election” whining. No golf challenges. No exaggerated mocking and mugging. And ditch the cognitive test rhetoric — that only works against Biden. If Harris is the nominee, she will throw it right back in his face. Stick to the facts about Biden, asking what he will be like at 84 or 85, and accuse Harris of complicity in covering up Biden’s troubles.
If Trump can suppress his instincts and deliver a sober, calm speech, he can reassure independent voters who are soft-supporting him and undecided voters turned off by Trumpian chaos. As importantly, Trump can make it safe for voters who are both furious with Biden and cannot bring themselves to vote for Trump to stay home or cast a protest vote for a nuisance candidate.
Trump and the Republican Party have the same problem: All they do is whine about Biden and the Democrats. They are not presenting an affirmative vision for the country or real, substantive proposals to fix the nation’s problems. Just saying “I’m going to make this and that better than ever” doesn’t cut it. Trump is coasting on Biden’s problems. That leaves a big opening if Harris swaps in and the Democrats clean up their act.
In politics, if you coast, you’re toast. Trump is making that mistake.
There are three issue areas Trump needs to address, where putting meat on the bone will boost Trump and put Biden and Harris in a bind.
The first is connecting immigration to inflation. Biden’s approvals on both issues are awful and have been for some time. The problem for Trump is that inflation is easier to complain about than fix. Immigration, perhaps Trump’s strongest issue, is just not that important to independents and Hispanics, ranking just fourth for both. Team Trump is making a stupendous error not connecting the two issues.
What are the implications of millions of illegal migrants streaming into America? How about higher housing costs? We see people getting kicked out of hotels in New York and other cities in favor of illegal immigrants. With housing inflation a severe issue for many Americans, connecting ending the flow of migrants — and even expelling people here illegally — would be a powerful one-two punch that would send the Biden-Harris ticket reeling.
More robustly addressing the fentanyl and drug crisis is another easy call for Trump. Yes, the GOP and Trump have spotlighted it, but what have they done other than “get tough” rhetoric? Not only should Trump demand that fentanyl be classified as the poison that it is, he should propose that anyone adulterating any substance with fentanyl be charged with attempted homicide. That the House GOP has not passed such a bill already is incomprehensible.
And Trump should not stop there. What is the real difference between cartels flooding America with toxic drugs and terrorists plotting mass murder? Why are foreign drug cartels treated like regular run-of-the-mill criminals? It makes no sense. Trump should demand that these malevolent groups be classified as enemy combatants, subject to military justice and lethal interdiction. Trump promising to send fentanyl smugglers to Guantanamo Bay is a sure winner.
Finally, Trump needs to end his bromance with Vladimir Putin once and for all. Trump’s unwillingness to forcefully condemn Putin and the Russians is one the most inexplicable things about him. For a guy supposedly tuned in to the polls and public sentiment, this is an incredible blind spot.
In the YouGov May 21 benchmark, Putin’s approval with the American public was 8 percent favorable against 79 percent unfavorable. With Republicans, he was down 11 percent to 79 percent. Seniors (over age 65) are Putin’s worst demographic, at 3 percent favorable vs. 93 percent unfavorable. And seniors vote. If Trump doesn’t clean up with them, he loses.
Russia fares as badly as Putin, with just 7 percent of Americans viewing Russia as a “friend” or “ally” while 78 percent view Russia as “unfriendly” or an “enemy.”
Trump’s base is even more hostile: Republicans and conservatives see Russia negatively at 80 percent and 82 percent, respectively. Worst of all within this group? Its seniors. They view Russia negatively at 93 percent, with 0 percent positively. I have seen hundreds of polls and I have never seen zero percent for anything.
Taking a tough line on Russia doesn’t mean a blank check for anyone. But it takes away a big attack point for the Democrats and an unnecessary drag on Trump’s polling. Russia and Putin are down over 70 points. Failing to be explicitly and aggressively on the right side of a 70-point issue is political malpractice of the highest order.
Keith Naughton is co-founder of Silent Majority Strategies, a public and regulatory affairs consulting firm, and a former Pennsylvania political campaign consultant.