The consequences of Saturday’s assassination attempt against former President Donald Trump on the presidential election are uncertain. However, one outcome seems clear.
Trump and the MAGA Republicans will shift blame for the shooting to Joe Biden and the Democrats for inciting Americans to violence by calling Trump a dictator and a danger to democracy. Whether this tactic will backfire remains to be seen.
This brings to mind the fable of the “The Boy Who Cried Wolf.” Once too often the boy sounded the alarm. The next time, help did not come. The wolf did.
Reverse this fable from the wolf’s perspective. Suppose Trump is the boy crying “Biden did it, Biden did it.”
And suppose Joe Biden is the wolf. Can the wolf turn this around? And will the boy cry “Biden did it” once too often?
Biden must overcome two Herculean tasks if he is to win in November. The first is to convince Democrats and Americans he can lead the nation for four more years. The second may be even more formidable. Can Biden neutralize accusations that this rhetoric led to the tragedy at Butler, Pa?
To achieve the first, Biden will lean heavily on his performances at last Thursday’s press conference and the next day in Detroit.
To any objective observer not having tasted of America’s political Kool-Aid, Biden’s press conference was a tour de force and his discourse on foreign policy a clinic. Kissinger, Brzezinski and Scowcroft could not have done better. The confidence, mental agility and skill he displayed there surely were transferrable to domestic issues, even though he misspoke calling Trump his vice president.
Critics on the right refused to listen to what Biden said. Instead, on Fox, the media was criticized for throwing “softball questions.” However, the so-called tough questions substituted venom for civility assuming the nastier each was, the more pertinent.
Questions such as “Why don’t you tell us the real truth about your physical condition” and “Why has the public been constantly lied to about your inability to serve as president?” are examples.
Even strong supporters dismissed the evening. In their minds, the first debate with Trump was irretrievably catastrophic. Even if Biden could continue his flawless political high-wire act, his age and ability to carry out his duties are too questionable to trust.
Hence, ABB — Anyone But Biden — should head the ticket, as it’s essential to beat Trump. And Biden is not able to do that.
The plan seems to be to ease or force Biden out, providing a classic farewell eulogy at the August Democratic Convention lauding the president for all his fabulous contributions made to the nation over the past 50 years. The most likely, but not certain, replacement, is Vice President Kamala Harris.
Yet, here is the question regardless of Biden’s abilities to serve as president: Even before the shooting, could Harris defeat Trump? Afterward, while her comments about Trump were not always inflammatory, would Trump overwhelm her?
Before the shooting, many Democrats believed, assumed or followed the groupthink that Biden would lose. The polls are the so-called evidence, and “Dewey defeats Truman” is considered ancient history.
Harris, however, is untested. It would be wise now for Democrats to see if Harris is competitive with Trump, especially in the battleground states such as Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan.
One hopes the Democrats have learned from the 2016 debacle in which Hillary Clinton forgot that only the Electoral College elects presidents. Trump won by some 77,000 votes in those states; Biden less than 50,000.
This means that a Biden decision to stand down would be on hold. With the Democratic Convention still weeks away, that gives time to assess if Harris is a viable candidate.
In the interim, Biden must become the wolf to Trump’s boy, incessantly screaming, “Joe is coming, Joe coming.” And the wolf must prowl in town halls and other venues where he can display last Thursday’s prowess.
This is high risk. The polls could show that Harris beats Trump. Polls that gave Trump an advantage could be dismissed. While Biden may continue to do well in campaign appearances, the recollections of the debate are an incurable form of political cancer. Biden is simply incapable of overcoming his age and ingrained perceptions of senility.
The second task may be impossible as Republicans zero in on Biden and the Democrats having caused this shooting. Their propaganda will be massive as this weekend’s flurry of negative commentary shows.
One tactic is fighting fire with fire. Trump’s statements and actions, to many, have been far more inflammatory and dangerous than Biden’s. Will merely neutralizing MAGA assaults with Democratic counterattacks work? Or is a more effective plan needed? And what is that?
Finally, the image of a bleeding Trump raising a defiant right fist will become viral and transcendent. A final thought: if Biden can fulfill both these tasks, he deserves to be reelected.
Harlan Ullman, Ph.D., is a senior advisor at the Atlantic Council and the prime author of the “shock and awe” military doctrine. He is the author of “The Fifth Horseman and the New MAD: How Massive Attacks of Disruption Became the Looming Existential Danger to a Divided Nation and the World at Large.”