Does your vote really count in the Electoral College? 

The 2024 presidential election has so far been a turbulent ride, with weeks of tension between Joe Biden and his party over calls for the president to step aside due to concerns he can’t win in November. His decision not to seek re-election, reached on Sunday, ends a half-century of political life for the DC veteran.  

At the same time, there is lingering national shock at the attempted assassination of former President Trump earlier this month at a rally in Pennsylvania. 

Political analysts keep reminding us that this is the most important election of our lifetime; at the same time, they are also insisting that the outcome of the race comes down to a handful of states because of our electoral system. 

So, let me get this straight.   

Because of the Electoral College, the most critical election to Americans, ever, will take place with only a small number of Americans actually making a difference in deciding who wins. Even wining the popular vote nationwide does not guarantee electoral victory. 

This is a strange situation, somewhat unique to America. (Less than a dozen countries have anything like it, including Burma, Burundi and Estonia.) It means that that the election could hinge on voters in just three of our 50 states — Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin this round, and maybe a handful of others — leaving the rest of the country wondering if their vote really counts. 

Yet we teach our children that every vote matters, especially in tight elections.  

Why have we ceded power to only a few geographic regions? Could this constant refrain about the race coming down to just a few states have a chilling effect on turnout nationwide? 

Pennsylvania is a bellwether state that’s proven decisive in 10 of the past presidential elections. 

Donald Trump won the 2016 presidential contest because he had the upper hand in Michigan Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania by “a combined 77,744 votes.” Joe Biden’s ability to score 20 electoral votes in Pennsylvania, his hometown, enabled him to become president in 2020.  

Even when you branch out from Pennsylvania and include other “battleground states” like Nevada, Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina, the total still encompasses a mere sliver of the American pie — “only 18 percent of Americans,” according to the Washington Post. That is not even a quarter of the country. 

And you can tell which states matter by where candidates travel—Trump just went to Michigan for his first post-shooting rally — and where they spend their money.   

In May of this year, National Public Radio aired a segment based on stats from AdImpact, which tracks presidential electoral spending across digital, print, radio and all outlets. The analysis found that “overall, $72.1 million has been spent on ads … almost 70% in seven key states, especially in Pennsylvania, where $21.2 million had been spent. That means that almost $3 out of every $10 spent is going to one state.” 

Americans are increasingly unhappy with our electoral system, with a 2023 study by PEW Research showing large numbers of Americans —65 percent want the Electoral College abolished — something many experts say is nearly impossible.  

Or is it? 

A review by Harvard University this year looked at the options available to change our electoral process, including a constitutional amendment or states changing their laws to a “winner-take-all” system. The report makes an argument for a “National Popular Vote Interstate Compact,” an idea introduced in 2006 to “guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states and the District of Columbia.”  

Though the Electoral College is a storied and important part of American history, it may no longer be serving today’s voter in our politically polarized times. It’s unconscionable that we leave so many Americans out of a vital process; perhaps the time has come for a change. 

Tara D. Sonenshine is senior nonresident fellow at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University. She served as U.S. undersecretary of state for public diplomacy and public affairs in the Obama administration.