Only a month ago, it seemed like nothing could stop Donald Trump from becoming president again — not even a bullet.
However, since then, President Biden has dropped out of the 2024 race and endorsed Vice President Harris. Now Trump is down in the polls. Harris has turned into a fundraising juggernaut, and Republicans are concerned about the effects in down-ballot races for the House and Senate.
On the other side of the aisle, the change at the top of the ticket has energized Democrats up and down the ballot. When speaking of the new polls, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) said the “numbers are ominous.” The numbers are so good for Democrats that the House Majority PAC is now investing in Iowa and Wisconsin. Chuck Schumer now believes they can outperform like in 2022 and win a majority in Congress.
In 2016, Donald Trump was the sail that lifted Republicans to the White House and majorities in the House and Senate. However, with Trump on the ticket since then, he has been more like an anchor, holding Republicans down, leading to disappointing results in 2018 and 2020.
Trump isn’t making it easy on the GOP today. He’s replaced Biden as the elderly man who can’t remember what state he’s in and continued his trademark undisciplined messaging of talking about himself and insulting his opponent. Trump fatigue is setting in, and even his die-hard supporters are walking out of the arena.
With Harris’s campaign gaining momentum and Trump continuing to prove himself unable to pivot and stay on message, what should Mike Johnson and the Republicans do?
Johnson should adopt Nikki Haley’s approach. Few politicians are savvy enough to walk the tightrope between MAGA and Never-Trump as Haley has done over the past eight years. While challenging Trump in the primaries, the former South Carolina governor built a strong grassroots support network and a healthy fundraising pipeline. She continues to be critical of Trump and his poor politics while maintaining support for his conservative policies.
While the emergence of Trump has sent prominent Republican figures like Ted Cruz and Kevin McCarthy into the shadows, Haley has positioned herself as the leading candidate to take the mantle when he’s gone, with the potential of uniting the broken factions back into a thriving party.
Johnson doesn’t need to abandon Trump; he needs to do what Haley is doing, and challenge the former president when he is out of line. “As iron sharpens iron, so one person sharpens another.” This would provide cover for congressional candidates in toss-up districts whenever Trump diverts from the teleprompter.
Instead of stroking Trump’s ego, Johnson should focus on building grassroots support for Republicans. To do that, he should build a coalition with Haley, tapping into her support network. This would ensure Republicans keep the House and provide a check on a possible Harris administration.
For his part, Trump is showing his weak hand and stubbornness. One of the president’s primary roles is to hire talent in the executive department. Haley is the most talented politician available, and Trump has hesitated to bring her on board even while his long-time supporters like Lindsay Graham are advocating for her. For her to campaign for Trump, it will likely take the promise of a Cabinet appointment, yet Trump has kept her at arm’s length.
If Trump is serious about winning, he must take a page out of Lincoln’s playbook and bring in his rivals.
Haley, for her part, should play hardball. She is on the rise, and Trump is on the decline.
She holds the cards now. Even if Trump wins reelection, he will be a lame-duck president, with his party likely in the minority in Congress. Haley should invest in Mike Johnson and the House races, continuing to build support for her 2028 run. If Trump wants her help, she should name her Cabinet position. If Haley were tapped as secretary of State, it might even sway some Never-Trumpers to hold their noses and vote for him, or at least not to vote for Harris.
Trump continues his stranglehold on the Republican Party, but that’s not likely enough to win the election for himself or toss-up congressional candidates. Harris may be far left and terrible on policy, but Trump seems incapable of taking advantage. And even if he were able, that might not be enough to stop the injection of optimism Harris has brought into the race.
If the GOP is going to win, it needs to take the Haley approach.
Jeff Mayhugh is the founding editor of Politics and Parenting and the president of East Coast Operations for No Cap Fund.