Kamala Chameleon vs. the Trump Circus: Where the polls stand  

An unprecedented presidential meltdown, an attempted assassination, the elevation of a much-mocked vice president. Throw in regular Trump tantrums and Kamala Harris abandoning her past progressive-liberal policy positions with unabashed alacrity and it’s really been quite a summer. 

But with both party conventions in the rearview mirror and the departure of the bizzarro Robert F. Kennedy Jr., it is now possible to get a sense of where the presidential nominees stand heading into the post-Labor Day homestretch. 

The main story is how Harris rescued the Democrats. Even before his disastrous debate, President Biden was headed for defeat — and possibly a rout. He may have only trailed Donald Trump by 1.5 percent in the RealClearPolitics Average, but he was well behind in Arizona, Georgia and Nevada and was consistently trailing in Pennsylvania. States like New Hampshire, Virginia and Minnesota were in play. 

Harris changed all that. She now leads Trump in the RCP average by just under 2 points, improving on Biden by 3.2 percent. More importantly, Harris has erased Trump’s leads in the battleground states.  

Harris and Trump are within 2 points of each other in all the swing states, including North Carolina — which looked like a definite Trump win in June. Any Trump hopes of surprises deeper into the map have mostly vanished. Interestingly, the ex-president hasn’t moved an inch: he was at 46.6 percent on June 26 and stands at 46.6 percent on Aug. 25.  

The race has gone from a Trump win to a toss-up, with Harris having the momentum. 

Harris defies bad issue environment 

Harris should not be in the lead. In fact, the Democrats should be headed for a disastrous defeat. 

In the most recent YouGov poll, the Biden administration had net negative approval on every issue, from crime to taxes to climate change. Inflation remains particularly bad, with approval at 32 percent against 60 percent disapproval. Independents approve at just 20 percent against 68 percent disapprove; women disapprove at 59 percent; and Hispanics at 57 percent. 

These numbers are little changed from June, where Biden was also net negative on every issue and under water on inflation by 31 percent approve against 60 percent disapprove and similar demographic splits. On immigration, Biden scores similarly badly, with the YouGov July poll putting him down 29 percent to 59 percent and 20 percent vs. 62 percent with independents. 

The YouGov polling had Trump and Biden tied at 42 percent in late June; it now has Harris leading Trump 47 percent to 45 percent. Both candidates are running 1 point ahead of their approval rating. Comparing Trump/Biden in June to Trump/Harris today, Morning Consult shifted from Trump plus-4 to Harris plus-4. Rassmussen moved from Trump plus-6 to Trump plus-3, and CBS News changed from Trump plus-5 to Harris plus-3. 

Looking at the YouGov crosstabs, Harris made significant gains with what the Democrats consider their base. Harris gained 8 points with women, 10 points with Black voters, 12 points with Hispanics and 8 points with 18–29-year-olds. With independents, Harris gained 6 points, although she is still underwater. Dropping the befuddled Biden has erased much of Trump’s inroads. (Worth noting: These are smaller sample sizes and subject to wide swings, but the gains are large enough for confidence they are real.) 

Normally vice presidents must be cautious about offending their boss when running on their own. But the humiliating exit of Biden, his terrible polling numbers and the overwhelming antipathy to Trump gives Harris more room than normal to strike out on her own. 

However, Harris is still VP to an unpopular president with unpopular policies that her party has hardly disavowed. Overcoming a 28-point deficit on the No.1 issue, inflation, should not be possible (42 points with independents). 

But Kamala Harris has another advantage: her campaign people know how to read the polls and know how to run a campaign.  

Harris is doing what she can to address the two main areas of issue weakness: inflation and immigration. She has taken a swing at food prices and the housing shortage (and the resultant price rises) and is now a born-again border hawk. While her anti-inflation proposals are dubious, to say the least, it’s still something. Her team is likely just trying to muddy the waters enough so that the race can be about Trump. 

So far, it’s working. 

Trump stuck in the mud 

Given the issue environment, a competent candidate should be cruising to victory. But no. Trump is a bad candidate with a bad campaign. 

Trump remains undisciplined, obsessed with his own grievances, easily bated by personal insults and, convinced of his own genius, categorically unwilling to take advice. It is true that Trump’s brand of populism has broken parts of the Democratic coalition. But he has alienated and repelled more voters than he has gained. 

The fact is, Trump has yet to best Mitt Romney’s 47.2 percent when he ran (and lost) in 2012. Winning politics means adding more than you subtract.  

Trump does deserve credit for his ability to attract attention like no other politician. And he does have a keen sense of marketing and sloganeering. Make America Great Again is one of the greatest political slogans of all time. Too bad he squanders this advantage. 

Trump would likely overcome himself with a competent campaign organization. But that’s not happening. 

Team Trump is not running a campaign to win; they are running a campaign for themselves and their candidate. Despite inflation being the top issue for the past two years, Team Trump has mostly ignored it. With women it is 12 points more important than abortion, and women disapprove of Biden by 26 points. For Hispanics inflation is 17 points more important than immigration and net disapproval is 20 points. 

Inflation is an intractable phenomenon and its effects linger. That makes it a great issue – it doesn’t go away easily. Trump should have been pounding on this issue for the past year. Where are the ads with farmers saying Biden overregulation and cost hikes are raising their costs? Where are the small-business owners saying they have been forced to raise prices and yet their profits are down? 

Trump and the GOP base are far more focused on immigration, with 24 percent saying it is their top issue, 13 points ahead of independents (who consistently rank it behind health care and, of course, inflation). Even there, Team Trump is obsessed with the lurid crime angle, rather than inflation. Most voters consider crime a local issue. To make it work, you must personalize and localize it — which Trump has mostly failed at. 

Given the problem of housing inflation and the fact that it exceeds all inflation, connecting a surge of millions of illegal migrants to rising housing costs should be a slam dunk. Trump could get a rare two-for-one on his attacks. Yet, his addled campaign cannot seem to figure this out. 

Stumbling to the finish line 

Can an angry, bitter old man consumed by personal grievances, backed up by a campaign team that can’t read polls and runs mediocre (at best) ads win? Can a last-minute nominee, saddled with unpopular policies and a sour electorate scratch out a victory? 

This toxic combination will make the next 68 days a nail-biter, where a critical mistake by either candidate or an outside shock could determine the outcome. Perhaps never in American history has a presidential race been so beyond the control of either candidate. 

Keith Naughton is co-founder of Silent Majority Strategies, a public and regulatory affairs consulting firm, and a former Pennsylvania political campaign consultant.