Everyone expected an October surprise, but few Republicans believed that surprise would be President Donald Trump testing positive for COVID-19, the disease that he described as a “Democratic hoax” in February.
Over the last few days, we’ve learned that Trump, along with several other high profile Republicans have contracted the virus. This, with just a month left until Election Day.
The president’s and his party’s handling of the devastating pandemic has been stupid, stubborn and irresponsible. Now Republicans themselves are paying the price for their feeble fight against the deadly disease.
The second wave of the pandemic could crest in a blue tidal wave that will sweep Trump out of the White House and Republicans out of the Senate. Things were already bad politically for the president before his diagnosis and then they got worse quickly.
The president’s performance at the first presidential debate tanked. Joe Biden was cool, calm and collected in the face of a frenzied assault. New polls measured the damage to the president’s campaign.
A national survey from the Wall Street Journal and NBC News conducted after the debate gave the Democratic nominee a 14-point lead over the incumbent. Battleground state surveys by the New York Times and Siena College after the debate indicate that the former vice president leads the president in Pennsylvania and Florida. Biden victories in both states would give him an Electoral College majority if he holds all the states that Hillary Clinton won in 2016.
Since the president’s affliction became public, things have taken for the worse for Republicans in more ways than one.
The refusal to take precautionary health measures seems to have turned the White House and the Trump campaign into COVID-19 convection ovens. Now with only a month to go before Election Day, several key members of the president’s reelection team have tested positive for COVID-19, including his campaign manager, Bill Stepien, presidential aides Hope Hicks and Kellyanne Conway, debate advisor Chris Christie and Rhona McDaniel, the chair of the Republican National Committee.
The outbreak could blow up the GOP plan to rush the confirmation of the president’s nominee to the Supreme Court, Amy Coney Barrett, through the Senate before the election. Sens. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.), Mike Lee (R-Utah) and Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) have also tested positive for COVID-19. Many of the new GOP infections could be a product of a White House ceremony on Sept. 26 to announce Barrett as the nominee. Tillis and Lee are members of the Judiciary Committee that will consider the nomination. Tillis is in a tough reelection battle.
The president’s illness certainly raises the stakes in Wednesday’s vice presidential debate. The confrontation between Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) and Vice President Mike Pence might have been a mere blip on the busy radar screen full of bogeys if the president was healthy. Now there is added pressure on Pence to perform well since viewers might see him taking a more active role in policy while Trump is ill. Harris, Biden’s running mate, will press Pence on the administration’s failed fight against the pandemic, so he better be prepared for her ferocious onslaught.
The rising number of COVID-19 cases in many states and the postponement of two NFL games last week indicates that the specter of pandemic has again reared its ugly head. The president’s positive test has also reignited the controversy over his failure to act quickly to suppress the devastating pandemic. The pandemic is back in the spotlight and a recent CNN survey indicates that Biden has a big advantage over the president on handling the pandemic.
Normally a presidential illness might create sympathy for the incumbent. But Trump’s callous disregard for the suffering of the millions of Americans afflicted by the pandemic and the subsequent economic devastation has drained the pool of goodwill available to him. More than 7 million people have been afflicted with the disease, more than 200,00 have died and millions have lost their jobs.
The president will recover with the benefit of the best health care that the United States government can provide. But many ordinary people have little or no health care to get them through the crisis. To make things worse, Republican state attorney generals have asked the Supreme Court to nullify the Affordable Care Act that provides health insurance to millions of Americans.
The spread of the disease is bad news for the nation, the president and millions of Americans. If there is any good to come out of this, the president’s illness may remind Americans, especially Republicans dismissive of the threat, that COVID-19 is still a crisis and hopefully it will discourage people from going into public places without masks. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) hopes the president’s diagnosis leads to a saner administration approach to the pandemic.
A president should set an example for his fellow citizens and Trump could perform a valuable public service in the waning days of his presidency by warning Americans to take proper precautions for their own safety and the safety of friends, family and strangers they come into contact with.
Brad Bannon is a Democratic pollster and CEO of Bannon Communications Research. He is also the host of a radio podcast “Dateline D.C. With Brad Bannon” that airs on the Progressive Voices Network. Follow him on Twitter @BradBannon