Reports of the Democratic Party’s demise have been greatly exaggerated

It’s open season on Democrats, with media coverage declaring them lost, aging and leaderless. But history suggests this funeral may be premature.

In case you missed it, a splashy New York Times piece that ran over the Memorial Day weekend warned that President Trump’s Republicans are boasting a “sea of red that amounts to a flashing warning sign for a Democratic Party out of power and hoping for a comeback.”

Meanwhile, NBC is out with a piece on how former Obama advisors and staffers have lost their luster. And here at The Hill, you can read all about how the Democratic Party is just too old. These are just a few of the recent additions to the “Dems in disarray” genre of reporting.

But are these obituaries wildly premature or blatantly obvious? It is hard to tell whether Democrats are genuinely teetering on the edge of oblivion, or if we’re simply in the part of that narrative arc where the main character is face-down in the mud before the third-act redemption.

Sure, Democrats look impotent. Yes, the bench looks more like a waiting room at the Mayo Clinic. Yes, Trump always seems to find a way to escape their grip. But modern history is replete with examples of charismatic political leaders befuddling their perpetually hapless opponents, only to watch the other side bounce back with its own superstar. Lather, rinse, repeat.

We have seen this movie before. After Watergate, the Republican Party was so desperate to humanize itself that it ran ads saying “Republicans Are People, Too.” A few years later, Ronald Reagan, a Republican, won a crushing 44-state victory over President Jimmy Carter (D).

The Reagan era made observers question whether Democrats would ever win the presidency again. Reagan got three terms, if you count that of George H.W. Bush, who coasted in on leftover fumes from the Gipper.

But then came Bill Clinton, who won two terms despite having enough personal baggage to ground a commercial airline. Republicans couldn’t believe it — how could the public not care about his blatant personal flaws?

Next came George W. Bush, who briefly inspired talk of a “permanent governing majority.” Then came the Iraq War, Abu Ghraib and Katrina — just a few of his administration’s worst hits.

Cue Barack Obama, heralded as the dawn of a so-called “coalition of the ascendant.” Republicans were convinced America’s changing demography meant they would never win another election — well, at least until the Obama coalition collapsed like a wet paper towel, ushering in the Trump era.

This is American politics. Charisma conquers, seemingly unbeatable coalitions (see the Democratic “blue wall”) wither and both parties take turns being declared clinically dead.

So yes, Trump looks for the moment like an exception to all the rules. Maybe he is. Or maybe American democracy as we know it is over, rendering this all a moot point.

But unless Trump truly destroys the constitutional order, someone else is going replace him in three-and-a-half years. And although it is easy to mock the current crop of Democrats, Trump’s charisma is not transferrable to others. His successor — likely to be a more conventional politician— will not be able to get away with what Trump has gotten away with.

And if history is a predictor, the next Republican nominee might face some rising Democrat who suddenly has the magic touch. If this seems outlandish or unrealistic, ask yourself whether in the late spring of 2013, around the time of the so-called Republican “autopsy,” you thought Trump might succeed Obama as president.

A snapshot of politics today looks bad for Democrats. Emerging trends suggest a broader shift, with Republicans making significant inroads among working-class voters, potentially signaling a political realignment.

But the world is dynamic. Things change, and so do voters. The right political leader showing up at the right moment in time can suddenly revitalize even a seemingly hopeless political party.

That is why smart political analysts could have looked at data in, say, 2015 and rightly concluded that Democrats were in the driver’s seat — just as a smart political analyst could conclude the opposite in 2025 — yet have events overtake them in both cases.

Democrats’ problems are real. Their bench is thin, and their branding is terrible. The coalition that once seemed bulletproof seems to be fumbling key constituencies to the other side. But despair is not a strategy, and media panic is not prophecy.

The sky isn’t necessarily falling. It’s just overcast, as usual. Political climates change. The star quarterback gets sacked or retires. And the team that looked unbeatable starts throwing interceptions.

Give it time. Gravity, as always, is patient.

Matt K. Lewis is a columnist, podcaster and author of the books “Too Dumb to Fail” and “Filthy Rich Politicians.”