In recent years, Republicans have introduced hundreds of state bills aimed at restricting the rights of LGBTQ Americans, particularly transgender youth, with more than 75 such bills being signed into law this year. While the federal courts are reviewing the constitutionality of some of these laws, this unprecedented effort to restrict LGBTQ rights recently led the Human Rights Campaign to declare a national state of emergency for LGBTQ Americans.
In some ways, this rash of legislation runs counter to trends in public opinion, which have shown remarkably steady growth in support for same-sex marriage rights and laws that prevent discrimination against LGBTQ Americans in jobs, public accommodation and housing. My organization, Public Religion Research Institute, recently found all-time high levels of support for both policies in the 2022 American Values Atlas survey, with 68 percent of Americans supporting same-sex marriage and 80 percent supporting nondiscrimination laws.
At the same time, attitudes about some transgender rights have reversed. Last fall, we found that Americans were more likely to support policies that require transgender Americans to use the bathroom of their sex assigned at birth rather than their current gender identity at higher rates than they did in 2016 when we first asked the question. This national trend, however, was largely driven by dramatic increases in support for “bathroom bills” among Republicans.
Concerns about whether this pattern in anti-trans legislation will grow and lead to a less-welcoming future for transgender Americans — or even potentially reverse support among Americans for now-established rights for LGBTQ Americans — may be premature, however, particularly if we look to previous social science research and the idea of intergroup contact theory.
Simply put, contact theory argues that contact between groups can dramatically reduce prejudice and intergroup conflict. This theory was first posited by the pioneering psychologist Gordon Allport in his work “The Nature of Prejudice,” written in the 1950s during the Jim Crow Era. Decades of research since then show interpersonal contact with individuals who are different leads to more positive attitudes about others, decreases beliefs in stereotypes and augers support for a more pluralistic society.
To illustrate, my organization PRRI finds that greater diversity within Americans’ friendship networks profoundly shapes their attitudes on a range of issues that promote more inclusivity. For instance, white Americans who have just one nonwhite friend in their close social networks are more likely to think American culture and way of life have changed for the better since the 1950s and prefer living in a racially diverse nation. White Americans with more racially diverse social networks are also significantly more likely to believe that immigrants strengthen the country.
Contact theory helps explain the dramatic increase in support for same-sex marriage and support for LGBTQ American rights over time. As Americans have come to know and love members of the LGBTQ community, opposition to codifying rights for this community has dwindled. This contact effect is still strongly in effect today.
In a new survey released last month, PRRI found that 51 percent of Americans say they themselves are (7 percent) or have a close personal relationship (44 percent) with someone who is lesbian, gay or bisexual — and 80 percent of these Americans support same-sex marriage. Among Americans who don’t report knowing anyone who is LGBTQ, support for same-sex marriage drops to 43 percent.
Similarly, we found that the impact of having a close personal relationship with someone who is transgender colors people’s attitudes toward the policies at the heart of the transgender political drama happening in some state legislatures. For instance, PRRI’s 2023 Gender and Politics survey found that among Americans who identify as transgender or are personally close to a transgender person, 7 in 10 oppose laws that would prevent parents from allowing their child to receive medical care for gender transition, compared with 52 percent of Americans who don’t know any transgender persons.
Moreover, we find that just 36 percent of Americans overall believe it is never appropriate to discuss that some people are transgender in public schools — a concern that drives much conservative activism at the school board level by groups such as Moms for Liberty. Yet knowing someone closely who is transgender makes Americans half as likely to agree that such discussions should never take place in schools (20 percent) than those who do not know anyone transgender (41 percent).
Unlike other members of the LGBTQ community, Americans are still far less likely to know someone who is transgender personally. While more than half of Americans have a close relationship with someone who is lesbian, gay, or bisexual, just 11 percent of Americans can say the same about transgender persons, which is not too surprising given that transgender Americans make up a much smaller portion of the U.S. population.
While transgender Americans will likely remain a relatively small percentage of Americans over time — though younger Americans are more likely to identify as transgender than older generations — most Americans appear open to forming relationships with transgender persons. Our recent survey found that just 33 percent of Americans indicate that they would be somewhat or very uncomfortable learning that a friend is transgender — an effect that is most pronounced among older Americans.
Knowing someone at a personal level who is different, whether that difference is rooted in race, ethnicity, religion, sexual orientation and/or gender identity, has an enormous impact on Americans’ willingness to exhibit tolerance and embrace inclusivity.
Demographic trends show that younger Americans, especially Generation Z, are far more diverse on all of these measures — including being the most queer generation (more than half of LGBTQ Americans are under the age of 35). As younger voters continue to make up larger portions of the electorate, and Americans increasingly know LGBTQ Americans within their social networks, attempts to ban transgender identity in schools and civil society or to reduce the rights that LGBTQ Americans have come to know will probably be unsuccessful.
Melissa Deckman, Ph.D. is CEO of PRRI (Public Religion Research Institute), a nonprofit, nonpartisan research organization dedicated to conducting independent research at the intersection of religion, culture and public policy.