The news wires are filled with stories about the conflict in Israel and the disfunction surrounding who will be the next House Speaker. These events overwhelm the air waves — and rightly so, given their urgency and importance. What we have not seen for several weeks are mass killing stories. The reason is simple: there have not been any since Aug. 24, a period now spanning 60 days.
Mass killings, defined as four or more people killed in a single shooting incident, excluding the shooter, have been quiet — almost eerily so. This contrasts with mass shootings, defined as four or more people killed or injured, excluding the shooter. They have occurred at a rate of around 13 per week on average so far this year, on pace to match the numbers reported in 2022.
Calls for gun restrictions, particularly semi-automatic weapons, surge after some mass killing events. This is particularly true if the event involved children and occurred at a school, or at some venue that involved underrepresented groups of victims. Without such events to amplify these calls, politicians are prone to ignore the issue, given that there is little political capital to be gained by focusing on it without an event to draw a visceral response and media attention.
If calls for gun restrictions are dependent on a recent gun shooting event, then such calls are disingenuous. The fact that we have gone two months since the last mass killing should be irrelevant to the discussion on gun safety. If gun safety is important, which most people believe it is, then the issue deserves attention of itself.
In fact, the best time to discuss gun safety is during quiet periods like the one we are currently in. During such times, emotions are quiet, and rational thought and reasoning can be used to discuss the issue and carve practical policies that can gain bipartisan support.
The problem is that there is no political capital to be gained to discuss gun safety policies without a mass killing event to motivate and rally the population and political representatives around the issue. Moreover, lawmakers gain little when they can be part of a bipartisan bill on such a visceral issue.
The bleak truth is that the gun safety issue may never get resolved in this country. Political capital today is gained through conflict and contrast, not cooperation and compromise.
What is also certain is that another mass killing event will occur, likely in the very near future. Given that the timing of such events is highly random, the nature of the pending events will elicit political attention, highlighting the need for greater gun restrictions from one side, and rebukes to such calls from the other (often grounded in the Second Amendment).
Research suggests that certain types of interventions and rules may enhance gun safety. Debating the merits of each is a red herring that fuels inaction. What is certain is that gun safety is no longer an issue that can be addressed politically. It is currently used as a pawn by power-grabbing politicians to sway their constituents, and by doing so, deepening the ideological divide that defines our nation’s political extremes.
Gun safety is critically important, whether mass killings occur daily or every two months. Moving such discussions outside the political sphere is imperative. The people who would be most appropriate to craft gun safety policies include personnel from law enforcement, the judicial branch of government, and health care.
Law enforcement personnel are in the direct line of fire when firearms are used to inflict harm. Judicial personnel are in a position to rule on laws involving the inappropriate use of firearms. Health care professionals are on the front lines in treating the wide footprint of people affected by unsafe gun shootings.
Gun safety is important because it can reduce avoidable and premature deaths and harm. Much like how seat belt laws have made automobile travel safer, gun safety laws can reduce the unsafe storage, availability and use of firearms.
So when the next mass killing inevitably occurs, and politicians step forward to discuss the issue, know that what many say, on both sides of the aisle, will be duplicitous. What is certain is that with around 400 million firearms in the nation, guns are not going away any time soon. This is the condition under which gun safety laws and policies must be crafted.
If our nation is to live in such an environment, moving the gun safety issue out of the political sphere and with the people who understand and are in direct contact with the issue would be a valuable first step to reduce avoidable and unnecessary deaths with firearms. Until such a point is reached, the status quo will continue.
Sheldon H. Jacobson, Ph.D., is a professor in computer science at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign. A data scientist, he applies his expertise in data-driven risk-based decision-making to evaluate and inform public policy.