A.B. Stoddard: Clinton’s calculus

It must be hectic at Clinton Inc. these days, what with the excitement of a newborn granddaughter, a busy speaking schedule, that yoga she’s doing and now the need to game out multiple scenarios for a coming political storm. 

Sure, there is a national election in a few weeks, but commenting on the results will be the easy part for Hillary Clinton. It is what will happen after the election, and all the unknowns, that will confound a candidate so fond of painstaking planning.

Republicans, eyeing a Senate majority, are already making plans of their own for the weeks between the election and the new Congress being sworn in on Jan. 3, 2015. During the lame-duck session, some GOP senators are already vowing a showdown over ObamaCare in the vote to pass additional operating funds for the government.

{mosads}The “risk-corridor” provision in the Affordable Care Act, which would compensate losses by insurance companies from inadequate enrollment, must be added to the new spending bill for 2015. Dubbed the “taxpayer-funded bailout,” critics are vowing to block it, which could lead to another government shutdown. Clinton will find it hard to dodge legislative battles the way she waited nearly three weeks this summer to comment on the chaos in Ferguson, Mo., following the shooting death of unarmed teenager by a policeman. 

And should President Obama announce executive action on immigration — which Republicans will characterize as an unconstitutional amnesty — Clinton must prepare to weigh in on what promises to be an explosive political fight.

As it stands, either party could control the upper chamber in the 114th Congress, as there are likely to be runoff elections in both Louisiana and Georgia — and Clinton could be pressed to help save the Democratic Senate majority. The national parties have already reserved resources for what promise to be intense battles should the races continue past election night. Yet it’s not clear that sticking her neck out to save Sen. Mary Landrieu and/or Michelle Nunn will help Clinton much. Should Democrats hold on to a one- or two-seat majority, the former secretary of State would have to spend the next two years defending Obama and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid. It would be far better for her campaign to run against a crazy, obstructionist, overreaching GOP Congress.

And should she win the White House in 2016, she is likely to have a Democratic Senate anyway. Even if the GOP retakes the Senate this year, there’s a great chance it could flip back to Democratic control in two years, when only 10 Democrats are running but 24 Republicans are up for reelection, several in blue states Obama won in 2008 and 2012.

In addition to domestic policy debates, the war against the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) will continue throughout 2015 and likely Clinton’s entire campaign. Soon Obama is expected to shake up his national security team, according to David Ignatius of The Washington Post. After the makeover, when new personnel are grappling with the ISIS threat and the nuclear ambitions of Iran, how supportive must Hillary Clinton be, particularly if conditions in the Middle East continue to deteriorate? As a presidential candidate she will likely have to contrast what is being done with what must be done better. 

Finally, all of these developments will also impact her big debut. Of utmost concern will be the timing of the announcement of her now-old 2016 presidential campaign — just what dramatic lame-duck development could end up stepping on her newsless declaration?

For such a calculating and calculated politician, the volatility of the next three months will challenge Clinton’s best-laid plans. Of course it’s exactly what she will need to expect, should she ever become president. The unexpected gives you the presidency you get, and never the one you want. Just ask Obama.

Stoddard is an associate editor of The Hill.