Santorum’s May myth

Rick Santorum has now punted April and is saying that we need to wait
until May for him to rack up significant totals of delegates. Fat
chance.

After D.C., Maryland and Wisconsin, Mitt Romney has about 640 delegates. He will probably win New York (95 delegates), Delaware (17), Connecticut (28) and Rhode Island (19), raising his total to about 770. He’ll lose Colorado, Minnesota and Missouri, but he’ll get his share, raising his total to 800 delegates. He could, and probably will, win Pennsylvania, giving him 870. (Santorum doesn’t have delegates in each part of his home state.)

{mosads}Then comes May, Rick’s favorite month. But Romney will probably win Maine (24), Indiana (46) and Oregon (28), giving him just shy of 1,000 delegates. He’ll probably lose Arkansas (36) and might lose Kentucky (45), Nebraska (35) and North Carolina (45), although he will pick up some portion of their delegations in the proportional representation states. And he’ll likely lose the big May primary — Texas, with 155 votes. But because Texas votes by congressional district, he’ll win his share. Most likely, he will exit May with more than 1,000 delegates and could approach 1,100.

Then, by June 6, he will vault past the 1,144 he needs for the nomination by winning California, New Jersey, Utah, South Dakota, Washington state, Montana and New Mexico.

Santorum, Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul not only have no chance at winning a majority of the delegates, they also have no chance of deadlocking the convention. The numbers don’t add up.

Let’s get real and get on with beating Obama. 

Morris, a former adviser to Sen. Trent Lott (R-Miss.) and President Bill Clinton, is the author of 2010: Take Back America — A Battle Plan and Outrage, Fleeced and Catastrophe. To get all of his and Eileen McGann’s columns for free by email or to order a signed, advanced copy of his latest book Revolt!, go to dickmorris.com.