Trump 2.0: How many days before he loses momentum?

The Wall Street Journal recently featured a line from the “Karate Kid” movie to describe President-elect Trump’s agenda for his first 100 days in the White House: “Strike Hard, Strike First, No Mercy.”

That means on day one, Trump wants GOP majorities in the House and Senate voting to lower taxes, cut spending, increase border security and end subsidies to promote clean energy.

But as boxer Mike Tyson once put it, “Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the face.” The punch that is already rattling the Trump agenda is the jolting fear of immediate failure.

Narrow GOP majorities will make every Republican senator and member of the House into a king. If any one of them refuses to go along on that first bill, they are potentially the vote that kills it.

The loss of congressional Republican support for Trump at any point risks the start of a fatal, downward spiral for the Make America Great Again agenda.

For example, to get Republican backing for a tax bill, the president-elect and the party have to agree on the amount of a tax cut.

There is no sign they are close.

To avoid embarrassing failure at the starting gate, the GOP’s congressional leaders are talking up a backup plan. Instead of pushing for an immediate extension of Trump’s 2017 tax cut, the Senate Republicans caucus will agree on several smaller legislative hits.

They include new laws to speed mass deportations of illegal immigrants, increase security at the southern border and encourage more old-school oil and gas production. It is no knock-out punch, but a few early wins for Trump might allow him to say he is keeping his campaign promises.

That strategy obviously leaves the more difficult, potentially divisive debate over the size of tax cuts to be put off until the end of 2025, just before Trump’s tax cuts expire.

What is clear is that there is no coherent Trump legislative plan on tax cuts and lowering spending going into the first 100 days of the upcoming administration.

Meanwhile, the Republicans’ Senate majority will use much of the first 100 days on time-consuming, divisive confirmation hearings for Trump’s controversial Cabinet nominees.

America has seen this movie before. In the 2017 version, at the start of Trump’s first term as president, the GOP similarly controlled Congress and had difficulty making progress.

Remember that Trump’s grandiose promise that Day One was to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act — ObamaCare. It did not happen. 

Now, he says again he wants to undo the ACA, but he says he has only “concepts of a health care plan.”

In his first 100 days in 2017, he also promised to build a wall on the southern border and have Mexico pay for it. That didn’t happen, either.

This time, mass deportations that separate children from their parents and leave employers short of workers will represent another test.

Early in 2017 Trump promised that starting a trade war with China would end with China begging for a deal. That didn’t happen.

The one major piece of legislation they passed was the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, which overwhelmingly benefitted corporations and the wealthy. 

Eventually, he got congressional Republican support to pack right-wing judges onto the federal courts, notably three Supreme Court nominees who voted to end federal abortion rights, creating a political storm for the GOP.

This time, divisions over Cabinet appointees and divisions over the size of the tax cut are eating away at Republican unity.

Immediately, there will be Republicans who point out that the GOP’s plan to extend tax cuts and increase the already large national debt is at odds with talk of fiscal responsibility and halting inflation.

Moderate Sens. Susan Collins (R-Maine), Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) and Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) will hold the cards.

Will 82-year-old Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) be a wild card, defending what’s left of the Senate’s institutional prerogatives to spite his longtime foil, Trump, who repeatedly insulted him and his wife?

Trump long ago abandoned bedrock issues—deficit reduction, pro-immigration policies and strong support for NATO—that once defined the modern Republican Party. 

He recently reversed his support for a ban on TikTok, leaving congressional Republicans in an awkward pose.

His inconsistent stand on TikTok is a stark reminder of the policy chaos of his first term.

The problem for House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) is that chaos makes it difficult to enforce GOP unity.

Johnson is caught between Trump’s claim of an election “mandate,” and daunting challenges such as crafting a tax-cut bill that convinces moderate Republicans in the Senate.

And he has to do it under the terms of a “reconciliation,” bill. That limits the legislation to budget issues with no policy changes. That is the only type of bill that can be passed quickly without facing a Democratic filibuster. 

Johnson is already struggling to pass a continuing resolution to fund the government before Trump takes office while still dealing with a Democratic Senate majority.

Congressional Republicans may soon tap out on the slogan: “Strike hard, Strike Fast, No Mercy.”

Juan Williams is senior political analyst for Fox News Channel and a prize-winning civil rights historian. His newest book, “New Prize for these Eyes: the Rise of America’s Second Civil Rights Movement,” will be published in January 2025.