What’s really at stake with a government shutdown

Some members of Congress have taken the position that keeping our government functioning doesn’t really matter, and that pulling the plug on funding for the new fiscal year starting on Oct. 1 is a good way to make a political statement and drive our country in a different direction. 

The truth is that a government shutdown is not Armageddon, but it is a terrible deal for the American people. 

The current shutdown drama, like previous ones that I have observed during three decades in Washington and for the last 22 years heading an organization dedicated to making the government more effective, represents an abject failure of our elected representatives to meet their responsibilities to the public.

Although a shutdown has very serious ramifications, the truth is it will not interfere with the bulk of our government’s activities. Two thirds of government spending is mandatory and thus exempt from the current battle, including Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid. And major investments approved during the last two years, including funding for the Inflation Reduction Act and the bipartisan infrastructure law, represent multi-year expenditures that will be forthcoming irrespective of congressional inaction.

As for the year-to-year appropriations now hanging in the balance, agencies will continue work that is considered necessary for the preservation of life and the protection of property, which encompasses a substantial further slice of federal activity. 

All this means in practice is that the public will be largely insulated from the visible impact of Congress’ failure to meet its responsibilities. Yet a shutdown will waste billions of dollars, degrade the capability of our government to address future challenges, further erode public trust when trust in government is already low, and hobble the ability of federal employees to provide the public with many important services.

During previous shutdowns, for example, many exceptional federal employees honored by my organization’s Samuel J. Heyman Service to America Medal awards program were furloughed, including the Coast Guard’s only oceanographer dedicated to helping locate people lost at sea, and an Air Force energy expert who has saved the government $1 billion. The Air Force employee at the time expressed deep frustration that the shutdown was precluding him from “serving my country.”

Under the current scenario, air traffic controllers will still show up to work as will Border Patrol agents and employees at veterans hospitals, but hundreds of thousands of public servants who will be performing these and other vital functions will not be getting their paychecks even though they eventually will be paid. This includes active-duty military and federal law enforcement personnel.

That is a real hardship for many and a violation of our responsibility to those that are sacrificing so much to keep us safe and serve the public interest. Ironically, lawmakers would receive their full pay during a shutdown, although their staff, like professionals across the government, won’t.

Many government functions, however, will be shuttered. This is not because they aren’t essential, but rather because the harm to life and property is not direct or immediate. 

National parks will be closed, mortgage, small business and agricultural loans applications will face delays, new stock offerings will be put on hold, food safety inspections of meat, poultry and various commodities along with environmental inspections at chemical factories, oil refineries and industrial sites will cease. Disease surveillance will be hampered, the government’s disaster relief fund could be depleted, thousands of children could lose access to Head Start programs, and the already-backlogged passport applications process could be further delayed.

Instead of focusing on the mission and planning for the future, agency leaders are now in the process of identifying which personnel will be sent home on furlough, creating gaps in services and inefficiencies, while thousands of government contractors could be adversely affected, with many sidelined and eventually fired.

In addition, new government hiring will be stalled, hardly an attractive advertisement for future employees. This could further reduce the attractiveness of government service for younger workers. Currently, only about 7 percent of all permanent, full-time federal employees are under the age of 30 compared to about 20 percent of the broader labor market.

As Winston Churchill said, “Those that fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it,” and some members of Congress are willfully ignoring the history and fallout from past shutdowns to win political points.

There should always be room for debate to resolve legitimate policy and funding differences, but there should never be room to deny Americans the effective government they deserve or engage in a dysfunctional process that undermines the faith in our nation’s most important democratic institution.

Max Stier is the president and CEO of the nonpartisan, nonprofit Partnership for Public Service.