We analyzed crime data for all 50 states: What matters is how it’s used

Nationally, homicides spiked nearly 30 percent in 2020 and remained high in 2021. Many people don’t believe the justice system can fix the problem: Only 14 percent of the public reported having confidence in the criminal justice system in 2022. And the system is short-staffed — from policing to prisons, every part of the system is hamstrung, if not in crisis, due to vacancies and turnover.  

State leaders — governors, legislators and agency officials — share the goal of advancing safety and justice in 2023. To be successful, they will need facts about the challenges in their states and practical, research-backed strategies. 

But the data we need to address these challenges are scattered across agencies and are often not made public soon enough to be useful, if at all. As a result, officials are clamoring for solutions. A few are leaning on the outdated idea that longer prison sentences will solve the problem, and many more are not sure what will work best in this uncertain moment. 

The first step for state leaders is to ground their thinking in the facts about their state. Violent crime is up in some states and down in others. In most states, law enforcement is solving a smaller portion of violent crimes today than ever before. Our team at The Council of State Governments (CSG) Justice Center helps policymakers improve public safety. To help them understand crime in their state, we analyzed the latest data for each of the 50 states.  

Second, we developed a list of 10 ways states can lower crime. These strategies are based on research about what works to reduce crime and our experience working with over 30 states to develop solutions to improve public safety. There are no silver-bullet solutions to crime — it will take a combination of strategies unique to each state.  

Here are some examples: 

States can prevent and deter violent crime. Research on what works can help leaders invest in the most cost-effective prevention strategies. States can help solve a higher percentage of violent crime by improving investigation resources and tools. Research tells us that greater certainty of apprehension, not severity of punishment, deters criminal behavior. 

States can break the cycle of reoffending for people already in the justice system and focus more on meeting the needs of those who have been victimized. Michigan’s reentry strategy invested millions in community-based programs and reformed the supervision process. Since the effort began in 2006, reconviction rates for people leaving prison have dropped by 50 percent.  

States can restore the basic building blocks of their justice system. This means addressing staffing shortages, ensuring programs are delivering results and bringing siloed agencies together to focus on problems as a coordinated justice system. In Connecticut, state leaders created a coordinating office in 2005 to unite justice agencies and give them the data they need month by month on what is driving system trends and outcomes. 

States have met these challenges before. In red and blue states alike, officials have come together to improve both safety and justice, often on a bipartisan basis. And over the past decade, we have seen many positive results. Nationally, property crime rates are one-third lower. Robberies are down 38 percent. Black/White racial disparities for people sent to prison for drug offenses have shrunk by 80 percent. Prison populations have dropped more than 20 percent. People on parole are less likely to return to prison. 

Today, state leaders face the challenge of reducing violent crime and restoring public trust. But states have options — lots of them — to solve crime and build safer and stronger communities.   

• Look at your state’s data on violent crime, clearance rates and prison populations. 
• Read more about 10 ways states can lower crime. 

Marshall Clement (mclement@csg.org) is the deputy director of The Council of State Governments Justice Center, a national, nonpartisan organization that helps policymakers in all three branches of government advance safety and justice.