Cap-and-trade votes

It’s crunch time for House Energy and Commerce Committee Chairman Henry Waxman (D-Calif.).

He has vowed to move a bill out of his panel by Memorial Day, but the votes are not yet there. Waxman is expected to release legislative text this week, but some Democrats are wary of voting on legislation that is unlikely to pass the Senate.

{mosads}Waxman has hinted that he will skip a subcommittee markup and go straight to full committee. Why? Because he has more votes to play with at the full committee level. There are 20 Democrats and 13 Republicans on the Energy and Commerce Subcommittee on Energy and Environment, with 11 Democrats not being sure “yes” votes. Most — if not all — Republicans on Energy and Commerce will reject Waxman’s measure.

There are 36 Democrats and 23 Republicans on the full committee, so Waxman could afford to lose a half-dozen votes to clear the legislation.

But he doesn’t want to eke out a committee vote. He’s been talking to a lot of Democrats on his committee to strike a compromise, and some have suggested they are heartened by what they hear.

But there are at least a dozen committee Democrats who are undecided, leaning no or who need a little more coaxing to get to yes.

Some of the Democratic members who have publicly raised concerns are Reps. Baron Hill (Ind.), Jim Matheson (Utah), G.K. Butterfield (N.C.), Rick Boucher (Va.) and Charles Gonzalez (Texas).

Many lawmakers are concerned about how climate change legislation will affect prices that consumers pay for energy, most notably for electricity and gasoline.

Waxman has said he wants a bill on the president’s desk this year, but he’s been around long enough to know that won’t happen. If it gets out of committee, there is no guarantee it will get out of the House, much less the Senate. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) is optimistic about healthcare reform, but has deemed climate change a headache.

Still, don’t underestimate Waxman. He stunned Washington after the 2008 elections to snare the Energy and Commerce Committee gavel from Rep. John Dingell (D-Mich.). And even though he is a liberal, Waxman is also pragmatic. The 69-year-old lawmaker knows how to count votes — he’s been doing it since he was elected in 1975.

And Waxman has a huge ally in House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), who has called climate change her flagship issue.

The big question is: Will President Obama push Congress on cap-and-trade? The president backs climate change legislation, but he also supported the housing “cramdown” legislation that recently failed in the Senate.

Obama didn’t use much of his political capital to press for cramdown. Will he flex his muscles for climate change? Probably, but not this year. Healthcare reform is higher on his legislative wish list.