House GOP then, and now

Following the Republicans’ successful election in 2004, the usually reserved House Speaker Dennis Hastert (R-Ill.) issued a jubilant release, stating, “What a great election! What a great time to be in Washington, D.C.!”

Similarly, then-House Majority Leader Tom DeLay (R-Texas) was described as ebullient during a post-election speech in Houston.

After winning his 11th term, DeLay said, “We’re going to be able to lead this country in the direction we’ve been dreaming of for years.”

No one could have predicted that less than three and a half years later, both men would be out of leadership and out of Congress, and that their seats would have been taken by Democrats.

Bill Foster’s (D) victory over Jim Oberweis (R) on Saturday in the special election for Hastert’s seat was a very special occasion for Democrats. The district is red; President Bush won it with 55 percent of the vote in 2004.

Republicans privately note that Oberweis was a sub-par candidate who had previously been rejected in other bids for political offices in Illinois.

But make no mistake — Foster winning Hastert’s seat was a telling sign. If Republicans cannot hold a conservative-leaning district after the cash-strapped National Republican Congressional Committee invested $1.3 million into it, how can they expect to outslug Democrats in the fall?

Meanwhile, Republicans in Texas are split over who they want to face Rep. Nick Lampson (D) in November. Lampson won DeLay’s seat in 2006, aided by the fact that Republican Shelley Sekula Gibbs could not get on the ballot and launched an unsuccessful write-in campaign. Sekula Gibbs will compete against Pete Olson next month in a GOP runoff for the right to face Lampson.

While Democrats do not boast of holding the Hastert and DeLay seats for years to come, they do point out that their candidates can play in red districts. They are right, though how long that will last is unclear.

By all accounts — fundraising, recruiting and the political winds — congressional Democrats are headed for a triumphant November. The White House race is more up for grabs, especially with the never-ending Democratic primary.

Yet it is difficult for the party in power to remain humble. The most effective leaders know that while the wind may be at their back now, the question is not if it will shift direction, but when.

Hastert alluded to this notion in his November 2004 release: “As they say in politics, ‘What have you done for me lately?’ The next election will be about our results over the next two years, not about what we have done in the last 10.” Indeed it was.

The face of the Republican Party has changed dramatically over the last few years, and unless it finds its identity soon, Democrats will continue to scoop up GOP seats.