Senate math

Republicans need a lot to go right for them if they are going to take control of the Senate next year.

They need to win a net 10 seats. That is no small task, but it’s not impossible.

{mosads}First things first. Republicans have to defend their own. That means they need to win contested battles in Florida, Kentucky, Missouri, New Hampshire, Ohio, Louisiana, Alaska and North Carolina.

With the wind at the GOP’s back, it’s a good bet that Republicans will win at least six of those eight seats. The toughest will be in Missouri, where Rep. Roy Blunt (R) is running against Missouri Secretary of State Robin Carnahan. Democrats also have a decent shot in Kentucky.

Still, it’s entirely possible that Republicans will be able to keep all eight.

So what about Democratic-held seats that are likely to flip? Absent some extraordinary and unpredictable event, North Dakota, with Sen. Byron Dorgan (D) retiring, will be won by Republicans.

Again, barring something dramatic happening over the next several weeks, Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-Ark.) will lose, and Republicans will also win in Indiana. Assuming Republicans defend all their seats and win these contests, they are a plus-three.

If they do that, they must also win seven of these 11 contests: California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Nevada, New York, Pennsylvania, Washington, Wisconsin and West Virginia.

Republicans cannot be expected to win the blue state of Delaware now that Christine O’Donnell is the nominee. And they are probably going to lose in New York because they couldn’t get a big-name Republican to run against Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D). West Virginia is a possible pickup for the GOP, because President Obama is not popular there. But the chances that Democrats will retain the late Sen. Robert Byrd’s (D-W.Va.) old seat are better than 50-50.

The GOP has the edge in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Illinois, with California, Colorado, Connecticut, Nevada and Washington clear toss-ups.

In wave elections, most toss-up contests go with the party that has the momentum.

In 2006, most political prognosticators predicted Democrats would win the House but not the Senate. All the tight races, except for the contest between Bob Corker and then-Rep. Harold Ford Jr. (D-Tenn.), went to the Democrats that year, and they defied the pundits, winning control of the upper chamber.

Four years later, many are predicting Republicans will control the House, but not the Senate. Historically, however, the Senate flips when the House does.

Republicans can take that as good news. But it also begs the question of whether the GOP is going to take the House. More on that question on Wednesday.