Cooling cordiality

Nancy Pelosi’s relationship with President Obama will be going through major changes in the new year and beyond.

Many thought the California Democrat would retire after the GOP easily won control of the House, but she opted to run for minority leader. As expected, she triumphed in that race, though a surprising number of Democrats (43) voted for Rep. Health Shuler (D-N.C.).

{mosads}Some liberals who backed Pelosi over Shuler claim she will stand up to the Obama White House, which is a fascinating argument that suggests Pelosi could be the least likely leader to compromise with Obama, with whom she partnered so successfully on healthcare legislation.

In many ways, there are incentives for Obama, soon-to-be-House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio), Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) to strike deals on certain issues in 2011 and 2012.

Obama needs to talk about something other than healthcare reform and the stimulus.

Boehner wants to show voters that House Republicans have the power to make law even with a Democrat in the White House.

Reid is well-aware that the 2012 map favors Senate Republicans and if the economy doesn’t improve, senators like Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) and Jon Tester (D-Mont.) will probably not win second terms.

McConnell, who has been criticized for saying his top goal is to make sure Obama is a one-term president, can’t say no to every Democratic idea. McConnell has stressed he is ready to strike deals with Obama on trade, nuclear power and “clean coal” technology.

There are fewer reasons for Obama and Pelosi to compromise. 

Pelosi is under pressure from liberal groups to fight against Republicans and add steel to Obama’s backbone. It’s a role she previously played in early 2000 when Bill Clinton held the White House and the GOP controlled Congress. 

“I’d caution Democrats not to compromise on issues that will only produce incremental changes that will help Republicans,” Pelosi said at the time.

While in the House minority, Pelosi was not shy in criticizing the Clinton White House, most notably on trade with China.

Obama, for his part, needs to attract the independents who were crucial to his 2008 victory but abandoned Democrats in the midterm election.

Pelosi and Obama, for the most part, have had a cordial relationship. But the relationship has shown signs of fraying.

Rep. George Miller (D-Calif.), one of Pelosi’s closest friends and advisers, recently told The Washington Post that the White House could have done more to defend the Speaker in the face of constant GOP attacks.

“There’s no evidence they rose to her defense,” said Miller.

Breaking with Obama will be different, because the president and Pelosi worked so closely in the 111th Congress. 

Still, the bottom line is Obama wants a second term while Pelosi wants her majority back. There certainly will be times when the means to these ends correlate. And there will be times when they clash.