Tax primary threat

Neither left nor right likes the tax deal President Obama ironed out with congressional Republicans.

Some would say that is a sign of good, fair legislation that should become law. What is certain, however, is that this bill will be fodder for primary challenges.

{mosads}During this election cycle, four House lawmakers and three senators, from both sides of the aisle, were successfully challenged by members of their own parties.

With three wave elections in 2006, 2008 and 2010, there will be plenty of primary challenges again in the 2012 cycle.

From the left, a Democrat could be challenged for voting to approve an extension of the Bush tax cuts for millionaires and billionaires. From the right, a GOP candidate could run a commercial noting that a Republican lawmaker voted to expand the deficit by more than $55 billion to pay for unemployment benefits. 

Of course, there is plenty in the legislation that is popular, but that won’t be what primary challengers focus on.

Critics of the tax package on the left include former Democratic National Committee Chairman Howard Dean, MSNBC’s Rachel Maddow and New York Times columnist Frank Rich. On the right, former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin (R), former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney (R) and radio talk show host Rush Limbaugh have publicly opposed it. A leading Tea Party group has also criticized the compromise.

The intensifying opposition on the right presents short- and long-term problems for House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-Ohio) and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.). 

For the immediate future, the two GOP leaders want to make sure most of their Republican colleagues on Capitol Hill embrace the deal they cut. While there will be defections on the final measure that is ultimately sent to the president, most House Republicans will vote to approve the legislation. And most Senate Republicans lined up behind McConnell this week as the upper chamber addressed the bill first. 

Over the long term, future deals that Boehner and McConnell strike with the president are likely to be attacked by the 2012 GOP White House hopefuls. In other words, this tax debate will probably be one of many examples of daylight between Republican leaders in Congress and candidates who want to topple Obama in two years.

 The tax debate is not over yet, though the House will probably approve the Senate measure. Knowing that the compromise has enough votes to pass and that a yes vote could spark a primary challenge, it’s a good bet there will be a surprising number of “no” votes in the lower chamber