Better methane accounting will mean a faster and cheaper energy transition

A push for the oil and gas industry to reduce its methane emissions is on. Methane, the major component of natural gas, is 80 times more potent than carbon dioxide over a 20-year timeframe. In the U.S., the oil and gas industry is the second largest contributor of methane emissions after agriculture. According to the International Energy Agency, the energy sector globally was responsible for 135 million metric tons of methane emissions in 2022 2022 — an increase from the year before.

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) recently proposed regulations to cut oil and gas methane emissions by 87 percent in under 10 years. It’s one of the most ambitious and far-reaching EPA proposals in recent history. The EPA regulation is reinforced by the Inflation Reduction Act, which creates a new methane fee — effectively a tax on U.S. oil and natural gas companies — with some exemptions for EPA rules being in place in all states and other reduction levels being met.

Even more importantly, natural gas consumers are demanding an end to wasteful and damaging methane leaks. There’s a burgeoning market for “responsibly sourced gas,” or natural gas that comes with assurances that it was produced cleanly, with little to no methane leakage.

For example: Europe has abandoned Russian natural gas almost overnight following the invasion of Ukraine. As a result, U.S. natural gas exports have surged, but continued access to this market will depend on “targeted actions to tackle methane leaks,” according to the European Union. Or to use the EU’s shorthand: “You collect, we buy.” 

But even with these incentives, challenges remain. Foremost among them is that U.S. tallies of methane emissions are rough estimates — and estimated pretty badly at that.

In early January, three major research universities — the University of Texas at Austin, the Colorado School of Mines and Colorado State University — announced a $50 million initiative to drastically improve the measurement and accounting of greenhouse gases across global oil and natural gas supply chains.

The initiative is called the Energy Emissions Modeling and Data Lab (EEMDL). Its top priority: Clearing up the fuzzy math that’s currently used to estimate methane emissions from the energy sector.

Research from UT Austin and the Colorado School of Mines shows that methane emissions at a single facility can vary by 1,000 times over the course of a few days. And there is mounting evidence that most methane comes from so-called super-emitters, or big gas leaks that happen very infrequently.

To address this problem, the industry has come to understand that deploying various sensing technologies that exist today, ranging from on-the-ground to aerial surveys, can gather the data required. But providing “accurate” measurements actually requires a lot of data science — complicated math using big data. And that data science is more nascent than most realize.

That is where the EEMDL comes in. Leveraging the expertise of three universities, it will provide reliable, science-based, transparent and measurement-based greenhouse gas assessments of global oil and gas supply chains.

Armed with this analysis, stakeholders from across the spectrum will have a clear picture of where methane leaks are occurring, how to fix them and — even better — how to prevent them from happening in the first place.

In a related effort, the Payne Institute for Public Policy at the Colorado School of Mines is also home to the Responsible Gas Initiative, which brings natural gas stakeholders together to share ideas and discuss best practices for reducing methane emissions. For a challenge this big and this complex, no single company, regulatory agency or research institution has all the answers, so collaboration is absolutely essential.

Methane accounting may not have the popular appeal of electric cars or rooftop solar panels. But finding, fixing and preventing methane leaks is one of the fastest and cheapest ways to reduce heat-trapping gases in our atmosphere.

And a faster, cheaper path to a stable climate is something the world badly needs.

Brad Handler and Simon Lomax are program managers at the Payne Institute for Public Policy at the Colorado School of Mines, specializing in sustainable finance and responsible gas production. 

Morgan Bazilian is the director of the Payne Institute and a former lead energy specialist at the World Bank.