We need better strategies for the approaching climate breaking point 

The climate crisis, the potential collapse that we are living through, has become visible and tangible to most Americans this summer. We have all been battered by climate-driven, increasingly severe weather events.

Phoenix has baked; 89 residents died from heat stress and others were scorched by third-degree burns from asphalt broiling at 180 F. 

A construction worker in Texas died of dehydration as the state was under weeks of severe heat warnings. 

At the beginning of the month, 65 million Americans were under heat advisories. 

The Northeast has been hit by historic rain and flooding, causing widespread property destruction and deaths. 

The sun has been obscured and our breathing has been impacted by smoke from Canada, as 34 million acres of evergreen boreal forest went up in flames. 

And of course, most tragically of all, the town of Lahaina in Maui was burnt to the ground, killing more than 100, with the toll still rising every day.

This is what climate crisis and collapse feel like. 

What was slow is now fast, sudden and destructive. Climate change, to some, was scattered and avoidable — but no more.

The climate future is being created now by what we do today and tomorrow, as the stock and flow of greenhouse gases rise every year. 

We can see what life on this planet will look like as we are about to break through the 1.5 degree Celsius maximum increase targeted by the 2015 Paris Agreement. For we must be realistic and face facts: That maximum will be exceeded within the next couple of years.

So, what must be done now? Every government, industry, firm and individual should make changes to our green goals.

Let’s be clear: The cost is manageable.

The Bridgetown Initiative, championed by Barbados Prime Minister Mia Mottley is the way forward. It calls for $100 billion in special drawing rights cash from the International Monetary Fund, $500 billion in development funds from the multilateral development banks and $1.5 trillion in private funding for just green transition. These sound like large amounts — but they are not.

When compared with the cost of waging wars, the cost of the essential, urgent, unavoidable green transition is small. The United States spent 35.8 percent of its gross domestic product to defend against and defeat Nazi Germany, supporting Great Britain and the Allies. According to a Congressional Research Service estimate, America spent $686 billion on the Vietnam War.

The green transition can and must be financed by public and private actors and is a relative bargain — although the cost rises every day we delay.

It is already underway, and we can see it happening before us.

Consider that the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts that renewable sources are set to grow from 2022-2027 by 2,400 gigawatts. This is equal to the entire installed power capacity of China in 2023. The IEA also reports that the 2023 annual investment in renewables will reach $1.7 trillion, exceeding the total for global fossil fuels. Finally, a climate-related tipping point we can feel good about!

We see that economic shifts are like climate change: slow and then sudden.

The shift is seen in the United States’s new industrial strategy and the Inflation Reduction Act’s effects. The act’s early results, in jobs and billions invested, demonstrate that the changes are economically positive, swift and striking. Change is happening very fast. Finally.

In China, the news is positive too. The nation has reached and exceeded its renewable target for 2025. In 2023, its installed capacity is more than 50 percent renewables — a remarkable achievement — even as consumption remains weighted toward coal. A tipping point may be reached.

In Europe, the Ukraine war has spurred the move away from Russian gas and oil and into renewables. The shock, the terrible destruction and the huge energy price hikes of 2022 pushed key governments, such as Germany and part of the European Union leadership, to redouble efforts to pull the green future toward us. Wind and solar exceeded gas as a source of electricity generation for the first time in 2022; coal generation fell by 20 percent.

So, what are the takeaways from this summer’s dystopian climate disasters and our collective responses?

We will tragically blow past our 1.5 degrees Celsius climate goal — the implications of this failure are clear to see and feel. 

This epochal failure underscores that we must move faster with greater focus and effective collective action; international, national, local, inclusive, diverse in forms and community-based.

We can see that meaningful economic and policy change is also slow and then sudden. 

Markets today are changing rapidly. Businesses are making the leap to green. Industrial policies the world over have changed for the better and they are supporting and underpinning the shift.

The climate events of this summer are appalling and shocking. But rather than lose heart or give in to despair we can and should channel that alarm into action. In so doing we can ensure change happens even faster. And we can crucially elect those who put climate high on their policy platforms, and defeat those who do not.

Stuart P.M. Mackintosh is the author of “Climate Crisis Economics.”