Why Trump’s supporters trust him on tariffs — for now

President Trump recently announced a series of sweeping global tariffs, with rates sometimes shifting by the day. Although the precise timing and extent of these tariffs remain unclear, many experts believe that they could lead to an economic downturn.

In the face of immediate market turmoil, Trump has described these policies as a trade-off of short-term pain for long-term gain. He has asked for the patience of the American public, claiming, “Jobs and factories will come roaring back into our country, and you see it happening already. We will supercharge our domestic industrial base.”

Despite a temporary pause on some of the tariffs, the market turmoil continues. So far, congressional Republicans have been relatively mute about the economic repercussions, betting big that Trump’s supporters will trust him, at least in the short term.

Indeed, our research suggests that Republicans might be correct to believe that Trump’s base will accept economic pain for the promise of future gain.

This is not the first time that Trump has asked his supporters for patience and broad latitude in trade policy. In 2018, the first “Trump trade war,” he announced tariffs on China, leading China to retaliate by limiting purchases of agricultural products. Prices for crops like corn and soybeans immediately dropped, leading to a 20 percent increase in farm bankruptcies in 2019 compared to the previous year. Many farmers abandoned the tariffed crops and invested in alternative crops.

Meanwhile, Trump assured farmers, “We have all the cards, we’re going to win.” In polling, farmers expressing support for the president were quite optimistic about the prospect of trade war success.

This was not just talk, as we found when writing a recently published academic article. Using satellite data provided by the Department of Agriculture, we tracked the crop-planting of farmers before and after the start of the trade war. On average, we find that farmers swiftly decreased their planting of tariff-affected crops, such as corn and soybeans. This suggests a risk-averse concern for their bottom line, along with a general belief that the trade war would get worse before it got better.

However, farmers in Trump-supporting areas took a different path. These farmers were much more likely to continue business as usual, planting tariffed crops as if the prices had not changed. This suggests that Trump-supporting farmers believed the president’s claims that the trade war would come to a swift end. These business owners were willing to stand by the president in hopes that the short-term pain would indeed yield long-term gains. They were literally willing to bet the farm on it.

If the 2018 trade war is any indication, it is likely that Trump’s base is willing to accept some short-term suffering. Recent polls suggest that Republican voters are particularly supportive of Trump’s emphasis on imposing tariffs on imported goods, as they believe tariffs will benefit the economy in the long run. Seventy-eight percent of Republican voters favor the tariffs, and more than half believe they will bring prices down. This optimism might provide Trump with some tailwinds in the short run.

However, it remains to be seen how long Republican supporters’ patience will last. Bipartisan groups in both chambers of Congress have introduced bills to rein in presidential tariff power, although Republican leadership eventually fended them off. If economic projections are any indication, this trade war could be longer-lived and more costly to Americans than in 2018. Also, unlike the 2018 trade war, it is unlikely that government subsidies will be able to rescue all of the economic losers.

The patience of the public could eventually erode. But a short-term bet on the support of Trump’s base has a basis in reality.

Shannon P. Carcelli is an assistant professor in the Department of Government and Politics at the University of Maryland, College Park. Kee Hyun Park is a postdoctoral research associate at Arizona State University. In July, he will join the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore as an assistant professor.