As an American transplant who has been living through Italy’s coronavirus catastrophe, there is little doubt that America will soon see the tipping point in its rearview mirror. Yet, the U.S. will ignore the Italian tragedy at its peril. What specifically?
After initial reassurances that the virus posed little risk to most Italians, followed by a rapid escalation in the number of infections and deaths, Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte took the extraordinary — and, for a Western democracy, courageous — step of creating a quarantine zone in northern Italy encompassing almost 15 million citizens. Yet, even then, some Italian political leaders wanted to soften the medically necessary restrictions out of concern that they would cause near-term harm to the country’s economy. So people were permitted to continue many of their daily activities, as long as they didn’t leave the restricted zone; some political leaders even urged that museums and other popular sites remain open to minimize the impact on tourism.
On March 10, Prime Minister Conte extended the lock-down to the entire nation and tightened the restrictions, given the public’s insufficient voluntary compliance. Virtually all businesses were closed, except for those selling food and pharmaceutical products; travel was prohibited unless permissible under one of four narrow exceptions relating to health and emergencies. But it was too late.
By March 17 there were 31,506 cases of coronavirus infection and 2,503 deaths in Italy. More than 12,894 people were hospitalized, with nearly 2,060 in intensive care. Health officials are now concerned that, if the spread continues, there will be insufficient hospital beds and ventilators for the seriously ill.
Italy went from relative calm to crisis in fewer than 20 days. Let me repeat that: In a mere 20 days, life as we knew it collapsed.
The patterns in Spain and France now are eerily similar. And those who believe the U.S. will somehow be different should remember — it’s the same virus.
With hindsight, it is now clear that the Italian government’s early efforts to assure people that there was no cause for undue alarm only caused widespread fear and mistrust. The government’s belief that it could both contain the virus and mitigate the impact on the economy proved to be misplaced. Prime Minister Conte’s decision to lock down a democratic country should not be under appreciated. It was an act of political courage, placing the welfare of the state above his own political interests. Yet, the fact that an earlier implementation might have spared Italy much of the pain it is now suffering should stand as a warning to other countries, including the United States, to act promptly and decisively. Half-measures, such as those we have seen until the past few days in the United States, will only lead to a more intense and prolonged health and economic crisis.
Watching all of this as a member of the virus’s higher-risk age group, I am reminded of President Kennedy’s book, “Profiles in Courage,” and can’t help wondering whether my native America has become a nation lacking the courageous leadership demanded by this moment.
For the sake of us all, I hope we have a president and members of Congress who, through immediate and decisive action, will earn their places among the courageous leaders of earlier generations who were profiled by John F. Kennedy.
Marc J. Schiller is a retired attorney living in Orvieto, a city in central Italy known for its wine-producing and olive-growing. He is the former senior deputy general counsel for litigation at DTTL, the global entity for Deloitte, the accounting and professional services firm headquartered in London. He previously worked for the law firm of Cravath Swaine and Moore, headquartered in New York, before helping to found the firm of Davis, Markel and Edwards.