Is it safe to go back to school? We may find out the hard way

Will soaring delta variant infections and insufficient vaccination rates threaten the safety of American children as they flood back to in-person school over these next few weeks?

By the middle of September, more than 55 million children will have returned to school, most stepping into full-time, in-person classrooms for the first time in more than a year. Some have been in fully remote learning environments, others in so-called hybrid scenarios with a mix of in-person and virtual classrooms. And all will have gone through the most extensive, long-term disruption of K-12 education since the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic. 

We suspect that many children will be back in the flow of their educational trajectory without much in the way of long-term academic consequences. These are the kids who have had unfettered access to computers and the internet. Mentors have been available when needed and many already possessed the technological familiarity necessary to make it as 21 Century virtual students. 

But for nearly half of the returning students, those who live with families in economic adversity, there is an entirely different narrative. It’s a story of limited broadband and reduced access to a functioning computer or smartphone. These and other factors led to extended periods of virtual absenteeism for many children and youth.

In addition, hardworking, low-income parents had to make difficult choices: go to work or stay home to oversee digital learning for their children. This is why so many families and educators have eagerly anticipated getting in-person classes back on track as soon as possible. 

We could not agree more. Children must get back to full-time, in-person learning. But we are worried.

Much like the wishful thinking that made the president and so many of us prematurely buy into predictions that Summer 2021 would be ushering in a return to a semblance of normalcy, we are concerned now that the optimism of fully reopening our schools may be misplaced. 

Why?

First, there’s the delta variant of the COVID-19 virus, a mutation that spreads twice as rapidly as the original strain. In May, when discussions first began about a nationwide reopening of schools, the ravenous delta variant of the SARS-CoV-2 comprised just 2 percent of all new cases; by July, prevalence reached 82 percent. By August, it reached a staggering 93 percent of the emerging cases. Data are still being analyzed, but it is likely that most of the new pediatric COVID-19 cases are due to the highly infectious delta variant.

Second, no one could have predicted that, in spite of incredible efforts of the federal COVID-19 teams and the hard work of local public health officials across the U.S., resistance to masks and vaccines would have become so intractably powerful in many Republican leaning states. Ignorance, social media driven misinformation and crass political opportunism — see Florida and Texas — have sustained low vaccination rates and rampant community spread of the lethal virus. 

Third, children under the age of 12 years are not yet eligible to receive any COVID-19 vaccine and probably won’t be until well into the fall.  And in communities with a significant presence of the wildly contagious delta variant, we are concerned about crowded school environments with questionable ventilation systems, and a lack of universal vaccine or even mask mandates for teachers, adult staff members and children in all schools. This is an environment that could spell serious trouble for children as schools rush to bring them back to the classroom. 

Finally, it’s worth noting that since the pandemic began, approximately 4.5 million cases of COVID-19 have been identified in kids; albeit, a tiny percentage of overall cases. But the situation is highly fluid and the trends over just these past few weeks are very worrisome. There are currently more than 1,900 children in hospitals as of a few days ago — many in ICUs. On Aug. 13 in Dallas and in the surrounding 19 Texas counties, there were no available pediatric ICU beds at all. And in Hillsborough County, Fla., schools had to be closed when a COVID-19 outbreak caused more than 8,000 children and adults to be quarantined.

In essence, while getting children back to school is — and very well should be — one of the nation’s highest priorities, we have to proceed with caution. We must recognize that the pandemic is in a new and highly dangerous stage that puts children at far more risk than we had anticipated.  

So here’s what we need to do optimize a safe school environment this Fall:

• First, mandating vaccinations for all teachers and adult staff, as well as for any child eligible for the shots, is essential. Just this week New York City joined Chicago, Los Angeles and the state of Washington in requiring vaccinations for teachers and staff. Other than for true medical contraindications, there should be no exceptions. Religious exemptions must not be permitted; no major religion on the planet suggests that people should not receive vaccinations in a global pandemic. (And keep in mind that “regular testing” is not an acceptable alternative to mandatory vaccines; people can easily get infected between tests);
• Second, schools must be permitted and encouraged to require masks and social distancing in all educational settings;
• Third, assure that classroom ventilation systems are working effectively and;
• Fourth, remote learning options should be in place now, anticipating the eventuality that some students will need to be quarantined due to COVID-19 exposure. 

While it is true that the majority at risk are children and those of us in states where community spread is high and vaccination rates are low, it would be foolish and naïve to assume that will remain the case for very long. SARS-CoV-2 has already taught us that it is wily and dangerous — and most of all, alarmingly unpredictable. 

Kids undoubtedly need to be back in school — but they also need us to do everything possible to ensure that the return to class is as safe as we can make it.

Dr. Irwin E. Redlener (@IrwinRedlenerMD) is the founding director, National Center for Disaster Preparedness at Columbia University’s Earth Institute as well as professor of pediatrics at the Albert Einstein College of Medicine and a senior research scholar. He is a cofounder of the Children’s Health Fund. He is also a public health analyst for NBC/MSNBC and the author of, “Americans at Risk: Why We’re Not Prepared for Megadisasters and What We Can Do Now,” and “The Future of Us: What the Dreams of Children Mean for 21st Century America.”

Karen Redlener is a cofounder of the Children’s Health Fund (CHF), an organization that supports comprehensive health care for children living in poverty in urban and rural communities throughout the U.S. She is a program development specialist and advocate who focuses on the health and education needs of children coping with severe economic and social adversities. She co-developed the Healthy and Ready to Learn (HRL) initiative, which focuses on ensuring that children living with adversity are not hampered by health conditions that are known to interfere with learning.